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Category Archives: Black Swan Watch
Rare Earth Day 4.0
Rare earth stocks rocked today on the back of an article in PC magazinem which is really old news. Molycorp (MCP) was up almost 10 percent, hitting a high of $50.29 a share, and Rare Earth Elements (REE) up almost … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Commodities, Rare Earth Elements
Tagged Molycorp, Rare Earth Elements
1 Comment
China Rate Hike: Four Markets to Watch
Fearsome Foursome We’re watching the reaction in four markets to gauge how the Christmas gift from the Kings of the East will affect global risk appetite. The People’s Bank of China increased both the benchmark lending rate by 25 basis … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, BRICs, Commodities, Crude Oil, Equities, Monetary Policy
Tagged Australia, Bovespa, China, China Interest Rate Hike, Copper, Hang seng, Kospi, Monetary Policy, Nikkei, Oil, Shanghai
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George Will on Coming War Over Public Pensions
Be sure to catch George Will’s Washington Post piece on the coming battle in the new Congress over state and local public pensions. In early December, we posted the report by James Pethokoukis of a secret Republican plan to push … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy, Muni Bonds, Muni Market, Policy, Politics
Tagged Muni Bonds, Muni Market, State and Local Pensions
1 Comment
A spectre is haunting Europe
This is what’s going to blow up the Europe. All the cash and backstopping in the world is not going to solve the political problem. Jim Corr, a member of one of our favorite Irish bands, The Corrs, nails … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Video
Tagged Euro, Ireland, PIIGS, Political Risk, Sovereign Debt Crisis, The Corrs
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Why OPEC should fear $100 plus Crude
This is very cool and the future, in our opinion. We’re at the elbow of the technological exponential curve and just one key breakthrough in, say, battery technology and it’s off to the races. What’s coming will be … Continue reading
Japan Opposition Plans for “X-day” Bond Crash
Japan’s opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) says the government’s spending plans increase the risk of a collapse in the country’s bond market. Bloomberg reports, “We’re approaching a danger zone where bond prices could plunge,” Yoshimasa Hayashi, the Liberal Democratic Party’s … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk
Tagged Japan, JGBs, LDP, X-Day Bond Crash
5 Comments
Day of Reckoning for State and Local Governments
A must view 60 Minutes on the fiscal disasters of state and local governments. Meredith Whitney and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie weigh in. Check it out. Click here for video
Rollover Risk 2011- Sovereign Financing Needs
Sovereign rollover risk will be one of the major issues to monitor for 2011. The following are some key data tables and charts produced by the IMF. The most vulnerable countries to a rollover shock and/or failed bond auctions … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Economics, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk
Tagged Rollover Risk, Sovereign Financing Needs
1 Comment
Euro Fracture: Germany’s House Party Revolt
Go no further than the chart below to understand the resentment and anger among the German taxpayers who are being asked to clean-up the “House Party” of fellow EU members. The chart shows the housing bubbles of Ireland and Spain … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Economics, Euro, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Video
Tagged Angela Merkel, Euro, European Debt Crisis, Germany, PIIGS
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Europe’s Big Fail…
One lesson we have learned during the financial crisis is that a country’s banking system is an indirect liability of the sovereign. That is, unless the government is willing to allow banks to fail and let the domestic financial sector … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Budget Deficit, Euro, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk
Tagged European Sovereign Debt Crisis, PIIGS, Spain
1 Comment
Global Macro Monitor 