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Category Archives: Black Swan Watch
Debt of Honor in the East & South China Seas
We can’t help but think the Chinese are reading Tom Clancy’s 1994 thriller, Debt of Honor, as we watch their latest tiff with Japan unfold. Recall China suspended its exports of rare earths to Japan in September 2010 over a similar … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Geopolitical, Japan
Tagged China, Diaoyu/Senkaku islands, Japan
3 Comments
Sweet & Sour Channel Stuffing and the Shanghai Swan Dive
The news out China seems to be getting worse. Last week the NY Times reported about China’s huge inventory build of unsold goods, GUANGZHOU, China — After three decades of torrid growth, China is encountering an unfamiliar problem with its … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, ECB
Tagged Channel Stuffing, China, Mario Draghi, Shanghai Composite
5 Comments
No end in sight to Spain’s financial troubles
Hurry up, Mario! (click here if video is not observable)
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, PIIGS, Spain
Tagged Debt Crisis, Economy, Recession, Spain
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Spain bailout pressure mounts
(click here if video is not observable)
Posted in Black Swan Watch, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Spain
Tagged bailout, Bond Market, Spain
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Parabolic Moves and Gold
The Fed finds itself extremely unlucky once again as it talks up quantitative easing while food prices, mainly wheat and corn, are making a parabolic and historic move as crops suffer from extreme drought. You can’t prove causation with … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Commodities, Gold, Inflation/Deflation
Tagged Corn, CRB, Federal Reserve, Gold, Quantitative Easing, Wheat
1 Comment
Revolutionary Cycles and the History of Financial Bubbles
Are we on the verge of a “Golden Age of Global Sustainability”? Interesting thesis ala Kondratieff waves by the neo-Schumpeterian, Carlota Perez-Perez. Have a Listen. (click here if video is not observable)
Stratfor: Europe’s Contradictory Answers to its Crisis
(click here if video is not observable)
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Germany, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Spain, Video
Tagged European Debt Crisis, Germany, Spain, Spanish Banks, STRATFOR
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Italians ask the IMF
In this video, the IMF invited Italians to share their biggest worries about Italy’s economy. The IMF’s top economist on Italy, Kenneth Kang, takes questions about unemployment, taxes, and growth as part of the IMF’s annual economic evaluation of Italy’s … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Economics, Euro, Fiscal Policy, Italian Yields, PIIGS
Tagged Growth, IMF, Italy, Unemployment
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Will the smelly macro eat the micro?
Ugly macro as the three swans are back with a vengeance. China hard landing fears; Eurozone debt and banking crisis (say it ain’t so, Mario!); and fears of a rapidly slowing U.S. economy. Are the swans in the latest quarterly … Continue reading
Posted in Banking, Black Swan Watch, Earnings, Economics, Equities, Euro, Technical Analysis
Tagged China, Earnings, European Sovereign Debt Crisis, S&P500, U.S. Recession
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Shanghai Composite Approaching Key Support
Here’s one ugly chart. The Chinese government reported imports rose just 6.3 percent last month from a year earlier, less than half the 12.7 percent expected increase. No doubt this reflects softening domestic demand in the world’s second largest economy … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Technical Analysis
Tagged China, Current Account, Imports, Shanghai Composite
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Global Macro Monitor 