Category Archives: Bonds

Greece Debt Swap Surprises, Great Deal for the Country

Posted on March 8, 2012 by macromon

The FT is reporting, The largest debt restructuring in history was heading for a successful outcome last night as Greece looked set to see a participation rate of close to 95 per cent for its €206bn bond exchange. One person … Continue reading →

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Greece CDS Exposure

Posted on March 8, 2012 by macromon

Nice chart from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard’s Telegraph piece.   One would expect a relatively small first order effect if Greek CDS’ are triggered.   The second order effects,  such as contagion and the ding to market confidence are much more difficult to quantify … Continue reading →

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Major Holders of Japanese Govt Bonds (JGBs)

Posted on March 7, 2012 by macromon

Note the central bank holdings are increasing significantly . (click here if chart is not observable)

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Fed’s “Rent Control” Policies Starting to Distort

Posted on March 1, 2012 by macromon

We’ve posted many pieces (see here,  here and here) on how the Fed’s manipulation of the yield curve through QE and Operation Twist is distorting long-term interest rates — the most important price in the world, in our opinion — … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | 14 Comments

Bernanke’s “No Mas” Send Gold, Bonds, & Yen into Swan Dive

Posted on February 29, 2012 by macromon

Wow!  Take a look at gold, bonds, and the yen after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony on Capitol Hill was interpreted as “no mas” on further quantitative easing.  We we’re a little too complacent with our covered gold positions and … Continue reading →

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California Underwater

Posted on February 27, 2012 by macromon

Is this fulfillment of the prophecy that California will fall off into the ocean?  Just askin’. Stunning that 29 + percent of all mortgages in the state are underwater. (click here if chart is not observable)

Posted in Bonds, Housing | Tagged , | 1 Comment

The Great Repression: Freedom of Speech in the Bond Market

Posted on February 23, 2012 by macromon

We’re baffled anybody still looks to the U.S. bond market for signals of future economic activity, inflation, or even risk aversion.  Case in point is today’s 7-year bond auction, which CNBC’s Rick Santelli rated an eleven on a scale of … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Economics | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Greek bond swap brings new downgrades

Posted on February 22, 2012 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

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Current Housing Bust Much Worse Than Great Depression

Posted on February 22, 2012 by macromon

Great chart from the recently released Economic Report of the President.  We suspect the Great Depression housing bust didn’t have the government props to soften the blow as we do today,  which,  therefore, on a relative basis,  makes the current … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Housing | Tagged , , , | 5 Comments

Greek Credit Writedown! Finally…

Posted on February 20, 2012 by macromon

The just announced 2GB — Second Greece Bailout — is a misnomer.   We wouldn’t exactly call a deal where private creditors reschedule all maturing bond payments for the next ten or so years into a 30-year bullet with a 50+ … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 1 Comment