Category Archives: Budget Deficit

Rollover Risk 2011- Sovereign Financing Needs

Posted on December 17, 2010 by macromon

Sovereign rollover risk will be one of the major issues to monitor for 2011.   The following are some key data tables and charts produced by the IMF.   The most vulnerable countries to a rollover shock and/or failed bond auctions … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Economics, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Holders of U.S. Public Debt

Posted on December 15, 2010 by macromon

The best table we’ve seen on the U.S. government’s major creditors.  Nice compliment to our Dec11 post, Who’s Funding the U.S. Budget Deficit.  The U.S. government’s  fiscal year begins October1 and ends September 30.

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Economics, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Euro Fracture: Germany’s House Party Revolt

Posted on December 15, 2010 by macromon

Go no further than the chart below to understand the resentment and anger among the German taxpayers who are being asked to clean-up the “House Party” of fellow EU members.   The chart shows the housing bubbles of Ireland and Spain … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Economics, Euro, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Video | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Europe’s Big Fail…

Posted on December 15, 2010 by macromon

One lesson we have learned during the financial crisis is that a country’s banking system is an indirect liability of the sovereign.  That is, unless the government is willing to allow banks to fail and let the domestic financial sector … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Budget Deficit, Euro, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Rollover Risk: Moody’s Warns on Spain

Posted on December 15, 2010 by macromon

“Rollover risk” will be a major theme in 2011 and Moody’s is getting an early start.  Bloomberg writes, Spain had its Aa1 local and foreign currency government bond ratings placed on review for possible downgrade by Moody’s Investors Service. The … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Euro, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

10-year Spike: 70 Bps, 14 days

Posted on December 14, 2010 by macromon

The rapidity of the spike in long-term Treasury rates  is starting to raise some eyebrows. The yield on the 10-year bond has increased 70 bps in just 14 days. We have identified thirteen similar moves, where rates initially spiked 70 … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , , | 4 Comments

Fed Ownership of the U.S Treasury Curve

Posted on December 14, 2010 by macromon

Here’s an interesting chart we threw together showing the Fed’s ownership of Treasury securities maturing in each year on the curve.  There are no bonds maturing in 2032-35 due to the temporary discontinuance of the 30-year earlier in the millennium, … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Credit, Economics, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | 9 Comments

Argentina – “Cookie Cutter” for the European Periphery?

Posted on December 13, 2010 by macromon

“I would not say that Mexico is going to be a cookie cutter for others.” – William Rhodes, Citibank 1989 These were the words of the chairman of Mexico’s Bank Advisory Committee in 1989, just after the country and its … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Credit, Euro, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Who’s Funding the U.S. Budget Deficit?

Posted on December 11, 2010 by macromon

Interesting data showing who is funding the U.S. budget deficit and how the profile has changed since the financial crisis.  We excluded 2008 as the aggregate data was distorted due to the Federal Reserve’s $265 BN sale (or exchange?) of … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

filliBuster Sanders now on Senate Floor

Posted on December 10, 2010 by macromon

Bored?  Click here to watch CSPAN’s live view of Senator Bernie Sanders “ tax cut filibuster” on the Senate floor.   CSPAN  writes, He began his speech by saying, “I am simply here today to take as long as I … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy, Politics | Tagged , | 2 Comments