Category Archives: Sovereign Risk

Monitoring the Armageddon Trade – Day 3

Posted on July 27, 2011 by macromon

The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse were split on the Armageddon Trade today.  Gold and the dollar diverged and were non-confirming, though stocks got hammered and took out some short-term technicals.  Bonds rallied off lows to close essentially flat.    … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Charts, Dollar, Equities, Gold, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Chart of the Day: T-Bill Yields

Posted on July 27, 2011 by macromon

Somebody’s selling.  That is a big move in a big market.   The “freight from safety” trade on fears of credit downgrade may just be enough to light a fire under the arse of the politicos.  We had a huge capital … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Plan B: President Clinton’s 1995 Mexico Bailout

Posted on July 25, 2011 by macromon

It’s hard to fathom that the U.S. will default on its debt, but in the event Congress can’t come to an agreement to raise the debt ceiling, we have little doubt President Obama will circumvent Congress and invoke Section 4 … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Fiscal Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Analysis of Greece’s “Trichet Plan” Restructuring

Posted on July 22, 2011 by macromon

We’ve done some quick analysis of Greece’s commercial bank “Trichet Plan” restructuring announced late last night (click here for term sheet) by the Institute of International Finance (IIF).   The IIF is a consortium of the world’s largest banks. Interestingly, the … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 5 Comments

Greece’s Brady Plan, Finally

Posted on July 21, 2011 by macromon

The International Institute of Finance, a consortium of the largest global banks,  just released a  term sheet for a Brady-type Plan for Greece. The menu of options include Par and Discount Bonds, with principal collateral,  and a buyback option.  The … Continue reading →

Posted in Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 1 Comment

European Banks Rockin’………….

Posted on July 21, 2011 by macromon

Take a look at Germany’s Commerzbank and Barclays of the UK.   Both of their U.S. ADRs are up around 10 percent today.    Optimism over a Marshall Plan for Greece is helping the European banks and the Euro today.  The … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Equities, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Chart of the Day: Ireland’s Silent Bank Run

Posted on July 20, 2011 by macromon

We found this great chart posted over at New N Economics by Rebecca Wilder.  She points out the non-financial corporates have been fleeing Irish banks since 2007 and households 2010 to the tune of 14 percent of GDP.    Irish … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Monetary Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Sovereign Debt and Geriatric Deadbeats

Posted on July 18, 2011 by macromon

In the spirit of our earlier post, The Clash of Generations, we point you to an interesting piece, Geiatric Deadbeats, written by Ali Alichi of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).   He argues the age of a country’s population is inversely … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Demographics, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, State and Local Government | Tagged , , , , , | 4 Comments

Nowhere to Hide…

Posted on July 16, 2011 by macromon

Larry Summers understands the risks the game Congress is playing with on lifting the debt ceiling.   Bloomberg writes, Summers said a potential default makes him worry about “runs on banks, runs on money market funds,” exchanges facing “the prospect … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Gold’s Perfect Storm? Nears All-time Closing High

Posted on July 12, 2011 by macromon

Gold is creeping higher as many believe it is the only place to hide.  Cash gold is near its all-time closing high of 1563.20 on April 29th and closing in on its May 2nd intraday high of 1575.10.   We find … Continue reading →

Posted in Commodities, Dollar, Euro, Gold, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 4 Comments