Category Archives: Sovereign Risk

Irish Opposition Balks At Bank Bailout, Moody’s Downgrades

Posted on February 11, 2011 by macromon

The Irish Times is reporting this morning that the two main opposition parties, Fine Gael and Labour, want to delay the banking system’s recapitilasation until April, when the stress testing of lenders is complete. The Labour Party is taking an … Continue reading →

Posted in Euro, PIIGS, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Ken Rogoff Expects “Serious Social Unrest” in the U.S.

Posted on February 10, 2011 by macromon

Now this is depressing but not surprising.  Forbes writes, Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, co-author of a best-selling book on financial crises, This Time It’s Different, told Forbes today in an exclusive interview that the high unemployment rate and high levels … Continue reading →

Posted in Employment, Geopolitical, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Measuring Arab Unrest: The Shoe Thrower’s Index

Posted on February 9, 2011 by macromon

Here’s something interesting from the Economist, An index of unrest in the Arab world IN THIS week’s print edition we ran a table showing a number of indicators for members of the Arab League. By adding a few more and … Continue reading →

Posted in Egypt, Geopolitical, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Trichet Says Bond “Haircuts” Would Reward Short Sellers

Posted on February 8, 2011 by macromon

A few week ago ECB President, Jean Claude Trichet, torched the short sellers of the Euro and he is now warning Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) that demanding “haircuts” from bondholders in Greece and Ireland would reward the short … Continue reading →

Posted in Credit, Economics, Euro, Monetary Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Germany Rising – Keine Gehäuse Bubble

Posted on February 7, 2011 by macromon

The latest Economist reports the Germans are the most optimistic they have been since 2000 and business confidence is at its highest level  since the Ifo institute began tracking it 20 years ago.    The Economist writes, What’s Germany’s secret? … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Euro, Geopolitical, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Quote of the Day: Euro Debt Crisis

Posted on January 27, 2011 by macromon

“Europe is testing the limits of reactive incremental strategy … The laws of economics, like the laws of physics, do not respect political constraints.”  – Larry Summers at the World Economic Forum

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Quote of the Day, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Japan: Risk of Sovereign Interest Rate Shock – IMF

Posted on January 27, 2011 by macromon

In the context of S&P’s recent sovereign downgrade of Japan we thought you’d be interested in this IMF piece published in October.  The basic thesis is that Japanese commercial banks have been the main buyers of JGBs over past few … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Chart of the Day, Economics, Japan, Monetary Policy, Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

PBS: How Severe Is Europe’s Intertwined Debt Crisis?

Posted on January 24, 2011 by macromon

The PBS NewsHour ran this piece tonight titled, How Severe Is Europe’s Intertwined Debt Crisis? Note how Iceland is rising as the model debtor and listen carefully for the “politics of bailouts,” “Germany does not have pockets deep enough to … Continue reading →

Posted in Currency, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Video | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

European Commission: The U.S. is Worse

Posted on January 11, 2011 by macromon

Here is a European Commission chart that appeared in the online version of Der Spiegel.  It could be a decoy to deflect the markets attention off Europe and push back to what they may perceive as America’s wallowing in schadenfreude … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

The [First] Week in Review: A Capital Flows Sandwich?

Posted on January 7, 2011 by macromon

Not a bad start to the year if you were in the right space.  A Frenchman with a long position in “Apple the Sovereign” was up over 8 percent in Euros.   Note, Apple rose another $2.00 to $338 after Friday’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Apple, Bonds, Charts, China, Commodities, Currency, Economics, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment