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Category Archives: Uncategorized
Back to Yalta: A Great Power Carve Up 2.0
After this morning’s events in Caracas, a repost of last year’s piece feels not only appropriate, but unavoidable. What once looked like a theoretical great-power contest is now playing out in real time, across real countries, with real consequences. If … Continue reading
2025: A Year in Review, in Charts
2025 delivered one of those market outcomes that looks implausible until the chart forces a second glance. In a year dominated by artificial-intelligence euphoria and a powerful 13 percent appreciation of the Euro, European banks—long dismissed as structural laggards—quietly staged … Continue reading
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Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – Dec 26
No commentary this week as the charts are doing all the shouting. Heigh-Ho, Silver (and Platinum): The Great Fiat Exit of 2025 Are you actually watching this? Silver just capped an 18% weekly surge, only to be made look sluggish … Continue reading
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QOTD: Beijing’s Realpolitik
QOTD = Quote of the Day Chinese officials have learned that the Trump administration, for all its bluster, will not follow through on its promises or its threats. – Foreign Affairs
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Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – Dec 12
Global markets closed the week with a clear message: policy easing is supporting risk appetite, but leadership is rotating, and stresses are emerging beneath the surface. The Federal Reserve’s December rate cut reinforced expectations that the tightening cycle is firmly … Continue reading
From Portugal to Turkey: A Look at the Diverging Economic Fortunes of 2025
A great piece from The Economist ranking the performance of global economies. Here is a concise summary. Despite fears of a trade-war-induced recession, the global economy proved resilient in 2025. With global GDP growth steady at 3% and unemployment remaining … Continue reading
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Global Risk Monitor: Week In Review – Dec 5
Global risk sentiment stayed constructive this week despite a sharp back-up in global bond yields and lingering growth concerns. Higher long-end yields across 19 bond markets—led by a 27 bp rise in Canada—coincide with markets pricing an 80–90% chance of … Continue reading
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Global Macro Monitor 