Category Archives: Uncategorized

Keeping Stock Market Returns In Perspective

Posted on December 20, 2019 by macromon

We just want to pass on some data to keep this year’s stock rally in perspective.  We are seeing a lot super giddy behavior out there as the S&P500 makes a new all-time high but…wait for it…at record high valuations … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged | 1 Comment

About That Inverted Yield Curve, Coming Recession, and Repopocalypse

Posted on December 19, 2019 by macromon

Why did yield curve inversion fail as recession predictor in 2019? (i) QE1, QE2, QE3, Operation Twist 1.0 & 2.0, forward guidance mean inversion signal is not what it once was; (ii) US-China tariff headlines drove inversion, economic fall-out from … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Fed, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 2 Comments

It’s Always About The Treasury Flows

Posted on December 17, 2019 by macromon

We have looked at the central bank holdings — both the Fed and foreign central banks — of marketable Treasury bills, notes, and bonds over the past twenty years and were quite surprised by our findings.   Our analysis may also … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, China, Interest Rates, Japan, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

The Long-Term Damage Of The Trade War

Posted on December 12, 2019 by macromon

“US farmers might not regain their market share even if a trade settlement is concluded with China.”  – South China Morning Post If you have been following the Global Macro Monitor over the past year, you know our thoughts on … Continue reading →

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The Last Central Banker With Balls

Posted on December 9, 2019 by macromon

[Balls as in courage and bravery.  Exemplified in the quote,  “Margaret Thatcher was Ronald Reagan with balls.”  Don’t get all PC on us now!] As a graduate student, I interviewed at the Federal Reserve Board in the Eccles Building on … Continue reading →

Posted in Banking, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged | Leave a comment

December 7, 1941: “We are all in the same boat now”

Posted on December 7, 2019 by macromon

Those words spoken to President Franklin Roosevelt by British Prime Minister Winston Churchill on this day 78 years ago. On December 7, 1941, at around 1:30 p.m., President Franklin Roosevelt is conferring with advisor Harry Hopkins in his study when … Continue reading →

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Why The Stock Bull Is A Big Meh For Most Americans

Posted on December 5, 2019 by macromon

Interesting piece by the FT today that only one-third of Americans feel the benefits of the great bull market.   Only 40 percent of the population realizes stocks are up for the year.  These are tough numbers for a so-called “populist” … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Equities, Quotes, Uncategorized | Tagged | 31 Comments

QOTD: Churchill On Truth

Posted on December 5, 2019 by macromon

QOTD:  Quote of the Day The truth is incontrovertible. Panic may resent it, ignorance may deride it, malice may distort it, but there it is.  — Winston Churchill, HOUSE OF COMMONS, May 17th 1916

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Rollback Is The Word And Dealbreaker

Posted on December 5, 2019 by macromon

“#China believes if both sides reach a phase-one agreement, relevant tariffs must be lowered.” -Commerce Ministry spox reiterates tariff rollback must be part of phase one #trade deal via @CNBC’s @chengevelyn. Spox says 2 sides in touch. No deets on … Continue reading →

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The Trend Toward Hyperautomation & Autonomous Things

Posted on December 4, 2019 by macromon

Where is the policy response to help the U.S. labor market prepare for this?   Michael Kung, a senior partner at the US research and advisory firm Gartner Inc, told reporters at a press conference in Taiwan yesterday hyper-automation tops the … Continue reading →

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