Steph Curry Is Priceless

Posted on May 26, 2020 by macromon

This is must view, folks….

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One Of Our Best Trades Ever – Mike Trout

Posted on May 26, 2020 by macromon

While we are reposting, we thought we’d take a victory lap circle of the bases.  The following was originally posted on April 23, 2019, which was a victory lap of a repost from 2012, 

We’re buyers of Mike Trout’s rookie card. – GMM,  September 1, 2012

Now take a look at this recent USA Today Headline from May 21st. 

Mike Trout

Mike Trout continues to reach amazing new heights, even when he’s not on the field. 

In this case, Trout’s 2009 rookie baseball card — an autographed Bowman Draft Chrome Red Refractor — sold Wednesday at Goldin Auctions for $900,000, tying the modern record for a sports card.  — USA Today, May 21, 2020

What are the fundamentals, you ask driving the demand for Mike Trout?   It helps he won his third MVP in 2019 at a ripe old age of 28 years placing him rarefied company,

Trout joins fellow teammate Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Mike Schmidt, Mickey Mantle, Yogi Berra, Roy Campanella, Stan Musial, Joe DiMaggio and Jimmie Foxx as the only players who have won three MVP Awards. Only Foxx, DiMaggio, Berra, Mantle and Rodriguez have won three AL MVPs, and no player has ever won four. He also joins Pujols and Bonds (nine) as the only players with seven top-two finishes in MVP voting. — USA Today, May 21, 2020

Or could it be?  Ya’ think?

Does this have the whiff (pun intended) of deflation?


Originally Posted on April 23, 2019

Trout_picture.png

The first time we ever saw Mike Trout play baseball it was like watching the real-life version of The Natural,  and thought someday people will say,

There goes [Mike Trout] the best there ever was in this game – Roy Hobbes, The Natural

Moreover, the dude is such a nice and decent guy.

“What’s nice about it is Mike is such a good person,” Jim Quinn, the former mayor of Millville [Trout’s hometown], told NBC Sports. “You get some of these superstar athletes that have attitudes and aren’t really genuine, but Mike is a genuinely nice guy.” – GOODSPORTS

We began to hoard all things, Mike Trout.

We’re buyers of Mike Trout’s rookie card. – GMM,  September 1, 2012

 

Trout.png

 

QE?

We also knew QE was at our back and thought someday the Fed may begin to add baseball cards to its SOMA portfolio, especially if the POTUS collected them and would lean on the FOMC to ease monetary policy in order to inflate their prices  (note, FDR was an avid stamp collector).

 

 

We are pretty sure President Trump is not a big baseball fan as he has yet to throw out a ceremonial first pitch on opening day,

Every president since William Howard Taft, the commander in chief famously known for his particularly rotund figure, has thrown a first pitch at an MLB game…Donald Trump, for whatever reason, has yet to engage in the ceremonial practice of throwing the first pitch on Opening Day.   – Complex.com

Fundamentals

Given, no Fed buying and QE backstop we will have to depend on fundamentals — Trout’s productivity — to add value to our trade.   And the fundies are still sizzling,

Baseball has been around for about 150 years and Trout — only 27 years old — is already in discussion for one of the best to ever play the game…Since his first full year in 2012, Trout has averaged 34 homers, 26 steals and 98 walks and has hit .310/.420/.579. No player in the game’s history has racked up more WAR through their age-26 season. Basically, any metric you want to use puts Trout at the top of the game – MLB.com

I played against some of the all-time greats. Mike Trout is better than all of them. – Dale Murphy

Trout_stats

 

What We Are Buying

Mike Trout Farm Hats.  See here.

Trout_hat

We have no doubt the appreciation of the Trout Farm hat, as a collectible, will beat inflation over the years and estimate our great grandchildren will cashing these for thousands of dollars.

Looking for a big price jump when Trout is elected to the Hall of Fame circa 2037!

Upshot

Relax.  Tune out the ugly politics.  Enjoy the new stock market highs.  Watch some baseball.  Watch the Warriors win their third straight NBA championship.

Then continue to sell this strength while there’s a bid.  We think the S&P makes a nominal new high at 3025-ish before the Big Dipper sell-off or bear market.

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Get up and fight, sucker!

Posted on May 25, 2020 by macromon

Blast from the past.

We saw a lot of hits on our site today for this post from last year.  Very apropos as it time for America to get up and fight this virus and recession.   And like the Champ fought his battles,  we need a plan and strategy.

What a frickin’ great and iconic sports photo.

Originally Posted on May 25, 2018

53 years ago today, one of the most iconic photos in sport: Ali vs Liston II, captured by the brilliant Neil Leifer – @MeredithFrost

May25_Ali

 

The ending of the second Ali-Liston fight remains one of the most controversial in boxing history. Midway through the first round, Liston threw a left jab and Ali went over it with a fast right, knocking the former champion down. Liston went down on his back. He rolled over, got to his right knee and then fell on his back again. Many in attendance did not see Ali deliver the punch. The fight quickly descended into chaos. Referee Jersey Joe Walcott, a former World Heavyweight Champion himself, had a hard time getting Ali to go to a neutral corner. Ali initially stood over his fallen opponent, gesturing and yelling at him, “Get up and fight, sucker!”  – BoxRec

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Remembering The Sacrifice Of The Fallen On Memorial Day: A Harry Smith Essay

Posted on May 24, 2020 by macromon
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Going To Be A Slow August In Rhodes

Posted on May 22, 2020 by macromon

Even though,

Europe accounts for 50% of the global tourism market in terms of arrivals and has been particularly hard hit by the restrictions. Normally crowded cities such as Venice, Rome, Paris and Barcelona have stood empty.

The EU currently has recommendations in place to all its member nations that they restrict all non-essential visitors from outside. But with infection rates dropping off in some countries, this looks set to change.

Some countries, such as Greece and Italy, are already naming specific dates. On Saturday, Italy announced plans to reopen its internal borders next month, while German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that many internal EU border restrictions would be lifted by June 15. – KSLNewsRadio

It’s all on the comfy level of the touristas to travel during the summer holiday.

Stunning chart, not unexpected, and probably one of the last sectors to recover.

Tourism

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Mall Rats Jumping Ship

Posted on May 22, 2020 by macromon

Yikes!  See how Carol nailed this in her piece in yesterday’s post, Back To Class: REITs 101.

We may have discovered a superstar.

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COTD: The REIT Beat

Posted on May 19, 2020 by macromon

COTD: Chart of the Day

Interesting chart of the relative performance of the various  REIT sectors.  Our wild ass guess (WAG) is that commercial is still a sell.

We think the COVID crisis will be remembered, among other things, as the event when the world went fully digital and the office became a relic of the past.  Jack is laying the track.

“We want employees to be able to work where they feel most creative and productive,” a company spokesperson said. “Moving forward, Squares will be able to work from home permanently, even once offices begin to reopen. Over the past several weeks, we’ve learned a lot about what it takes for people to effectively perform roles outside of an office, and we will continue to learn as we go.”  – Jack Dorsey, Forbes

 

REITs

Hat Tip: Callum Thomas

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GPS: The Battle Over Reopening – MUST VIEW

Posted on May 18, 2020 by macromon

Empathy – the psychological identification with or vicarious experiencing of the feelings, thoughts, or attitudes of another. – Dictionary.com

Maybe once every few years we read, hear or see something that is so profound it shakes our intellectual foundation to the very core, awakens our sleeping dogmas within, and causes us to reassess our world view.  Yesterday was one of those times after watching the following 5-minute segment on Fareed Zakeria’s GPS.

We couldn’t understand why there isn’t 100 percent buy-in to reopen the economy only after the nation’s health officials sound the all the clear signal.   It’s very complicated and Fareed helps us understand the context.

Context Is Everything

Context is everything if we are to understand the positions of those we disagree with or the actions of those we are so quick to judge.   The following “Man on the Subway” from the Seven Habits of Highly Effective People by Steven Covey is an extremely powerful story about context,

“I remember a mini-paradigm shift I experienced one Sunday morning on a subway in New York. People were sitting quietly – some reading newspapers, some lost in thought, some resting with their eyes closed. It was a calm, peaceful scene.

Then suddenly, a man and his children entered the subway car. The children were so loud and rambunctious that instantly the whole climate changed.

The man sat down next to me and closed his eyes, apparently oblivious to the situation. The children were yelling back and forth, throwing things, even grabbing people’s papers. It was very disturbing. And yet, the man sitting next to me did nothing.

It was difficult not to feel irritated. I could not believe that he could be so insensitive as to let his children run wild like that and do nothing about it, taking no responsibility at all. It was easy to see that everyone else on the subway felt irritated, too. So finally, with what I felt like was unusual patience and restraint, I turned to him and said, “Sir, your children are really disturbing a lot of people. I wonder if you couldn’t control them a little more?”

The man lifted his gaze as if to come to a consciousness of the situation for the first time and said softly, “Oh, you’re right. I guess I should do something about it. We just came from the hospital where their mother died about an hour ago. I don’t know what do think, and I guess they don’t know who to handle it either.”

Can you imagine what I felt at that moment? My paradigm shifted. Suddenly I saw things differently, and because I saw differently, I thought differently, I felt differently, I behaved differently. My irritation vanished. I didn’t have to worry about controlling my attitude or my behavior; my heart was filled with the man’s pain. Feelings of sympathy and compassion flowed freely. “Your wife just died? Oh I’m so sorry! Can you tell me about it? What can I do to help?” Everything changed in an instant.”  – FLORA SAGA

Powerful!

We had a similar powerful paradigm shift yesterday after watching the following video.

Self-discovery, folks.  Today’s pols, though not all of them, have little interest in healing and uniting our divided nation but have rather perfected and mastered the art of exploiting the anger and rage, which divides the body politic, for their own personal gain and political power.

Our Friends

We are so thankful to CF and Matthew Dowd – both, true saints, in our book – for helping us along in becoming more empathetic for and understanding of others during these very difficult days.  Our country, and the world, for that matter, could use a little lot more empathy.

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QOTD: Walt Whitman

Posted on May 15, 2020 by macromon

QOTD: Quote of the Day

Happiness, not in another
place but this place…
not for another hour
but this hour – Walt Whitman,
“A Song for Occupations,” Leaves of Grass

B94740E2-42BE-4C8B-97EC-20AD400A1D8A

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Battle OF The Fibos & The Negative Yield Wall

Posted on May 14, 2020 by macromon

Fibonacci retracement levels are horizontal lines that indicate where support and resistance are likely to occur. They are based on Fibonacci numbers. Each level is associated with a percentage. The percentage is how much of a prior move the price has retraced. The Fibonacci retracement levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8%, and 78.6%. While not officially a Fibonacci ratio, 50% is also used. – Investopedia

Traders and ‘bots are clearly in control of this market.

We are fairly convicted the 50% Fibo won’t hold, which sets up a quick move to 50-day moving average at 2721-ish.

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Source: Carl Quintinalla

Be careful out there, folks, the shorts have been destroyed in the big bounce off the March 23rd bottom and there is very little holding up this market now x/ hope, delusion, and the specter of more financial asset shortages, in our opinion.

Bonds

Moreover, there is little room in yields for bonds to now be used as a stock market hedge or short proxy.

Though it’s possible the trading momo boyz & ‘bots may believe Jerome Powell will take them out of their longs at -2.0 percent, we have our doubts as it will create a real problem for the Fed and Treasury.

It’s [negative interest rates] an unsettled area. I know that there are fans of the policy, but for now, it’s not something we’re considering. We think we have a good toolkit, and that’s the one we’ll be using.” – Chairman Powell, May 13th

Though the Chairman was likely referring to only policy interest rates, it is not clear that if traders pushed U.S. notes and bond yields into negative territory the Fed would be there to buy as part of their QE program.  If they do, imagine the shit show this would cause with the monthly Treasury auctions.

Treasuries are not German bunds and have polar opposite supply technicals.  The former with “trillions upon trillions” of new issuance coming and the latter as scarce as hand sanitizer and a 2020 Yankee game, the result of perennial budget surpluses, making the border crossing into the negative yielding promised land a cakewalk.  Not so for Treasuries, however, as massive deficit financing has erected a border wall at zero percent that only President Trump can fantasize about.

It’s not that hard to issue a few billion euros of negative yielding German bunds but super-sized billion dollar Treasury auctions with negative yields?  Forget about it.

Are Long-Term Fundamental Bond Investors Extinct?

How could any fundamental real money fiduciary responsibly purchase an asset that is guaranteed to lose money if held to maturity?  Maybe long-term bond investors have gone the way of the Pterodactyl.  It’s pretty safe to say the 40-year jig in bonds is over. 

We suspect the momo boyz and ‘bots don’t have the firepower to climb the wall into negative yielding territory but if the Fed is taking down most or all of the new issuance and then some, you just never no.  Stunning, at least to us, how some bond bulls have no clue about this as they take their pyrrhic victory laps on Twitter.

Do the ‘bots and momentum boyz have this context and understand what is at stake?  More important, do the policymakers? 

What. An. Absolute. Fricikin’ Mess.

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Here’s to hoping and let us pray money demand in the U.S. remains infinitely elastic as our policy morph into MMT depends on it. Good luck with that.

As always, we reserve the right to be wrong.

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