Sector ETF Performance – January 18

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etf_m

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Global Risk Monitor – January 18

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La Grande Entrée!

Go Boogie!  The best starting five in the history of the NBA is now in action!

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More, please!

We all need to get ourselves back to the Garden this place…  The kindness and innocence of a little child.

 

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Ten Good Weekend Reads

 

patents

  • Why do we bother with stock market forecasts?  – Irish Times
  • The Left’s Delusions About Mexico’s New President – New Republic
  • Economists reconsider how much governments can borrow – Economist
  • Public Debt Through The Ages – Barry Eichengreen – IMF
  • ‘Modern Monetary Theory’ Is a Joke That’s Not Funny – Bloomberg
  • Don’t Be So Sure Hyperinflation Can’t Hit the U.S. – Bloomberg
  • Don’t kid yourself, the Federal Reserve isn’t done with interest-rate increases – MarketWatch

 

words per fed statement

  • Global policy uncertainty at record levels, Deutsche Bank says – FT

policy uncertainty

  • 5 puzzles in the international economy – Brookings
  • Goldman Says Rich People Will Drag Down the U.S. Economy by Spending Less – Bloomberg

Bonus

  • The Things John Bogle Taught Us: Humility, Ethics and Simplicity – NY Times
  • Bridgewater’s New Brain: A Millennial Woman Is Blazing To The Top Of The World’s Largest Hedge Fund  – Forbes
  • The Investment Philosophy of Paul Tudor Jones – gurufocus
  • US report says rapidly modernizing Chinese military has set sights on Taiwan – CNN
  • Barry Bonds getting support from early ballots to Baseball Hall of Fame – NBC
  • GOLF’s 2017-18 ranking of the Top 100 Courses in the U.S – Golf.com
  • The Loneliest Generation: Americans, More Than Ever, Are Aging Alone – WSJ
  • Orwell v Huxley: whose dystopia are we living in today? – FT
  • Time for America to embrace the class struggle – FT
  • A majority of Americans support raising the top tax rate to 70 percent – The Hill
  • What If Karl Marx Was Right, Mostly? – Econintersect.com

BBC Masters of Money Karl Marx

 

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TOTD: Quantum Mechanics Of Life

TOTD – Tweet of the Day

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This Day In Financial History – Jan 18

From the Great Jason Zweig

January 18:

2000: Its impossible to pay too much for a good stock, a leading investor tells The Wall Street Journal with a straight face. Its a new world order, says Robert Froelich, vice chairman and chief investment strategist at Kemper Funds. He says investors should own Cisco Systems, Motorola and Intel at any price and not worry about the valuation. We see people discard all the right companies with all the right people with the right vision because their stock price is too high — thats the worst mistake an investor can make. The people who have missed the bull market are the people who are on the sidelines trying to figure out how to value these things as opposed to getting into the market. Theyre also the people who miss the destruction of overvalued stocks that begins just weeks after Froelichs remarks.

The Wall Street Journal, January 18, 2000, p. C1.

 

1956: After more than a half-century as a private company, the Ford Motor Co. goes public when the Ford Foundation sells 10.2 million shares at $64.50. The largest IPO then on record, the offering puts 22% of Henry Ford’s company into public hands.

Peter Wyckoff, Wall Street and the Stock Markets (Chilton Book Co., Philadelphia, 1972), p. 103; http://www.ford.com/en/heritage/centennial/default.htm

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What makes elite athletes thrive or dive under pressure? | The Economist

Psychology is an increasingly important part of elite sport. Winning at the highest levels can depend as much on peak-fitness of the mind as the body.

Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy

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Stopped Out of S&P; Jumping Back Into Brazil

Mother Fudger!

The tape bomb about the U.S. keystone cops capitulating on the tariffs in China trade negotiations kicks in the aglos taking the e-minis right up to my stop only to reverse.  Those ‘bots are tough MoFos to beat and have been killing us for the past three years.  Sometimes, you feel the market has it personally in for you.

Not true.  Mr. Market could give a shit about your positions.

These guys running economic policy in this administration may be the worst in history.  And I’m not saying that out of spite because I lost money today.

There is no doubt in my mind the final China Trade Deal will be another Potemkin Village with only some cosmetic adjustments just as NAFTA 2.0 and the Korean Deal were.

Mnuchin and Malpass are up against these guys,  who know Trump wants a deal?

China’s crack team of trade negotiators is professional, productive and ruthless and has been described by a group of their international counterparts as “among the best in the world”. – SCMP,  January 8th

Regrouping

We have bid mauled by Bidzilla in the S&P over the past week.  Shorts are not working.  They will someday, in our opinion.

We have to a better job on managing our stops and sticking with our winners.

We sold China too early and left $6K on the table being a dick-for-a-tic trying to get back into Cable with 1.26 handle.  The Sterling March contract is now trading with a 1.30 handle as we write.  We are hoping to get back into favorite global macro trade at lower levels.  Don’t want to chase it here but tough to be patient.  You know FOMO is a real bitch.

It looks like the S&P is going to close above the 50-day, so we are jumping back into 8K shares of the  Brazil ETF, EWZ, at $43.00, right where we took profits on January 10th.  Stop at $41.77.

Our gold position is going nowhere and getting stale but we are sticking with it and will add with a breakout over $1300.

Overtrading is hazardous to your P&L.  Who said trading was easy?

Long-term investors should take into account our view but take the trading as sheer entertainment and enjoy the schadenfreude.

trades

 

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Getting Long Call Options On Phillies

I wish.

The Phillies are not a publicly listed company as is Manchester United, for example, or as the Boston Celtics used to be before going private. Maybe Cramer knows how to play this one.

Check out the latest rumor on the Bleacher Report.

The Philadelphia Phillies are reportedly trying to maintain financial flexibility with an eye toward a serious push to sign Los Angeles Angels superstar outfielder Mike Trout, who can become a free agent following the 2020 MLB season.

On Wednesday, Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated reported the Phillies have enough money to acquire both infielder Manny Machado and outfielder Bryce Harper—this year’s most coveted players in free agency—but would rather add one and keep a path open to attracting Trout.  – BR, January 17

The modern-day Ruth and Gehrig in Philly?

I have no doubt if Trout can stay healthy, we all be sayin’ twenty years from now,

The goes Roy Hobbs Mike Trout the best there ever was in this game.

trout

By the way,  I took a Sabermetrics course a few years back from Boston Univerity and my priors were that Colorado’s  Coors Field and Cincy’s “Great American Small Park” were the stadiums where the most home runs were launched.   Wrong.  It is Philly’s Citizen Bank Park.

No wonder Bryce is considering the Phillies.  He may hit 80 home runs in 2019!

My Giants’ AT&T Oracle Park ranks among the worst for home runs.  Uncle Larry reportedly just paid $300-350 million for the naming rights to the park.  Now the Giants can afford to pay the Mad Bum his $200 million contract.

AT&T Oracle is a great park for triples, by the way.

 

Check out the chart of Man U’s stock price.  Flashing a red card and looks like it could use a little help, maybe from  Maradona’s “the hand of God.”

manu

 

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