Earth At Night

Posted on December 6, 2012 by macromon

Very cool NASA satellite photos via Mashable.

Dec6_Earth_4Dec6_Earth_3Dec6_Earth_2Dec6_Earth_1(click here if pictures are not observable)

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French Unemployment Still Rising

Posted on December 6, 2012 by macromon

France’s unemployment rate has risen again, with the picture particularly bleak for young people…

Using International Labour Organisation measurements, the jobless total reached 10.3 percent of the workforce in the third quarter of this year.

The rise in youth unemployment was more marked, hitting 24.9 percent. 

http://www.euronews.com/

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Employment, France, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Apple and Tim Cook

Posted on December 6, 2012 by macromon

Nice reversal — again — in Apple.

At least when they shake the tree really hard there are still buyers to pick up the nuts.    They tried to sell it into to close but bids came in.  The stock is in no man’s land in our opinion.    Need to see it close above $560.

Dec6_Apple

(click here if chart and video are not observable)

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Cliff Diving – Day 19

Posted on December 6, 2012 by macromon

Image_Cliff DiveNot much here.

The markets continue to slowly grind higher on strong seasonals.   The S&P500 (SPY) gained 0.34 percent and the Russell was up another 0.16%.   Utilities were strong, financials up 0.32 percent, and the VIX basically flat.

Employment number tomorrow.   The 50-day remains resistance for the S&P500.

What would a real fiscal cliff panic look like?

Stocks down hard;  Russell 2000 down harder;  consumer discretionary down hard;  gold up;  dollar down;  VIX spiking;  and defense stocks in the tank.

Bonds?   Tough to extract a clear signal with the Fed’s financial repression, but,  initially,  the cowboys would most likely be in buying on recession fears and increased worries about going over the cliff.

Dec6_FCM(click here if video and table are not observable)

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The Most Corrupt Governments

Posted on December 5, 2012 by macromon

Transparency International is out with their Corruption Perceptions Index ranking governments on a scale 0 (highly corrupt) to 100 (very clean).

Dec5_Top10 Corrupt

The Corruption Perceptions Index scores countries on a scale from 0 (highly corrupt) to 100 (very clean). While no country has a perfect score, two-thirds of countries score below 50, indicating a serious corruption problem.

Click on chart to enlarge and for better resolution.

Dec5_Corrurption_1

(click here if chart is not observable)

Posted in Geopolitical, Policy, Politics | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

The Great Firewall of China

Posted on December 5, 2012 by macromon

The Chinese regime is famous for its “Great Fire Wall”—a comprehensive Internet censorship system that blocks websites authorities don’t want the public to see.

But what about when the website’s hugely popular, like Twitter, and the people wanting to use it is the regime’s own mouthpiece?  – 

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in China | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Cliff Diving – Day 18: Can Kicks Back

Posted on December 5, 2012 by macromon

Image_Cliff Dive

Lots of divergences today.

The markets caught a bid on China’s Shanghai catching a bid from nowhere.   The Shanghai was up close to 3 percent and off a three year low,  which had the index down 11 percent for the year and almost 70 percent from its 2007 high.

Both sides on the fiscal cliff seem to be digging in.  The House took off for the weekend and President Obama plans to jet off to Hawaii on December 17th for the holidays.   Either something is cooking behind closed doors, which the market seems to sniff,  or the cliff beckons,  which is not priced.  Place your bets.

The S&P500 was all over the place finding support at around 1398,  rallied, sold off, to close up a few points.   The Russell was down.  The Nasdaq was down almost 1 percent on Apple’s huge flop,  The Dow was up 82 points with the help of the banks as the financial ETF closed up 1.21 percent.  Note financials have been hit the hardest since the election.

The VIX was down almost 4 percent after climbing the prior two days.  Gold down a few bucks and the dollar unched.

The end of the week.  That is when we hit the panic button.

What would a real fiscal cliff panic look like?

Stocks down hard;  Russell 2000 down harder;  consumer discretionary down hard;  gold up;  dollar down;  VIX spiking;  and defense stocks in the tank.

Bonds?   Tough to extract a clear signal with the Fed’s financial repression, but,  initially,  the cowboys would most likely be in buying on recession fears and increased worries about going over the cliff.

Dec5_FCM

(click here if video and table is not observable)

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Apple’s Jaw Dropping Flop

Posted on December 5, 2012 by macromon

What a flop!

Apple’s $37 plus, 6.43 percent sell off was surreal. The world’s largest and most profitable company giving up almost $40 billion of market value while the rest of the market basically yawned? That doesn’t happen often.

The Apple selling on big volume could have been used to finance a move into the financials.   Bank of America was up over 5 percent and Citicorp tacked on over 6 percent.

Apple sits right at its .618 Fib retracement of the $88 bounce from $505.75.  We still think they will be blow out this quarter’s earnings, but the stock is over owned and the bears know it.

Thus technicals will dominate Apple in the short-term, especially with the Vampire Cross (death cross) staring traders in the face.  The 50-day moving average looks to crossover the 200-day in the next week.

Note Apple peaked two days before the big market sell off began in September and we think today’s action in the stock does not bode well for the overall market.   Could be wrong, but that’s how we see it.

Dec5_Apple

(click here if chart is not observable)

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Creative Destruction: The Music Industry

Posted on December 4, 2012 by macromon

The iTunes store…reinvented music.  Between 2003 and 2007, more than 2,700 record stores vanished, freeing up real estate and capital that could be used for other things.

– Michael Saylor, The Mobile Wave

Posted in Technology, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Ballooning of Central Bank Balance Sheets

Posted on December 4, 2012 by macromon

Interesting data and charts from the IMF on the ballooning of central bank balance sheets.

Since August 2007, the Fed’s balance sheet has increased by 221 percent, mainly through the purchase of government bonds and mortgage backed securities, with the effect of reducing long-term interest rates.

Similarly, the Bank of England (BoE) balance sheet has grown 380 percent with stepped up purchases of gilts, which have totaled 14 percent of GDP since March 2009.

The ECB’s balance sheet has expanded 241 percent through a wide range of measures, mainly long-term financing operations to the banking system.

The expansion of the monetary base in these countries has helped to offset the collapse of the shadow banking and credit contraction since the financial crisis.  In the case of ECB, they’re actions late last year prevented the collapse of the European, and, ultimately,  the global banking system.

Dec4_CB_1

Dec4_CB_2

(click here if charts are not observable)

Posted in Monetary Policy | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments