Weekend At the Movies: Lincoln

Posted on September 28, 2012 by macromon

Wow!  This looks good.

Steven Spielberg directs Daniel Day-Lewis as President Abraham Lincoln and Sally Field as Mary Todd.   To be released in November.

(click here if video is not observable)

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Nope!

Posted on September 28, 2012 by macromon

We were completely long and wrong Apple going into today.  After yesterday’s bounce and the stock’s ability to reclaim its 20-day moving average we thought it would move higher.

Not to be.  The stock gave up most of yesterday’s gain and closed on its low of the day.  Now we have the weekend to contemplate whether or not Apple is putting in a head and shoulders top.   Even Jim Cramer raised the specter of “peak Apple” a few days ago.

“Apple’s still affiliated with a founder who is not alive,” Cramer said, , referring to Apple co-founder Steve Jobs, who died in October 2011 after a long battle with a form of pancreatic cancer. “Therefore, we know at a certain point the drawing board of a founder who isn’t with us will end. Has it already? We don’t know.

We doubt it, don’t know for sure, but will let the market tell us.  The price has broken trend and it is now in no man’s land.   Key support is $660 and then the 50-day at around $650.

It could be PMs are locking in profits for the year and not willing to be a pig that gets slaughtered.  Also kind of feels like an ordinary garden variety correction is trying to morph into doubts about Apple’s product launch.

Discipline über alles, folks!

(click here if chart is not observable)

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Weekly Eurozone Watch: The European Street

Posted on September 28, 2012 by macromon

Key Data Points
German 10-year Bund 15 bps lower;
France 6 bps wider to the Bund;
Italy 10-year 20 bps wider;
Spain 33  bps wider;
Portugal 107 bps wider;
Ireland 24 bps wider;
Greece 28 bps tighter;
Large Eurozone banks down 5-10 percent;
Euro$ down 1.00 percent.

Comments
Spanish bank stress test results released after Friday close:
Bankia: €24.7bn capital shortfall
Catalunya Caixa: €10.8bn capital shortfall
Novagalicia: €7.2bn capital shortfall
Banco De Valencia: €3.5bn capital shortfall
Popular: €3.2bn capital shortfall
BMN: €2.2bn capital shortfall
Ibercaja+Caja3+Liberbank: €2.1bn capital shortfall;
Seven Spanish banks reportedly do not need capital, including Santander and BBVA;

Source:  Guardian

Austerity and reform fatigue growing reflected in this week’s  mass protests across Europe.

(click here if charts are not observable)

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Stratfor: Spain’s Troubles Threaten Eurozone

Posted on September 27, 2012 by macromon

At the end of the day it comes down to the European street, no?

(click here is video is not observable)

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Apple Reclaims 20-day Moving Average

Posted on September 27, 2012 by macromon

Big reversal day in Apple, up around 2 1/2 percent and over $21 off its low of the day.   The positive price action helped to lift the overall stock market (see chart).

The stock was able to close above the 20-day s.m.a., which has been a key support and signal level this year.  Though the chart is kind of in no man’s land as it broke through its upward channel, we think the short term risk reward is for the stock to move higher.   The line in the sand on the downside is now $660.   We reloaded today.

(click here if charts are not observable)

Posted in Apple | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Black Swan Watch: Japan could pull out of China

Posted on September 25, 2012 by macromon

This could be big and is not priced.  Keep it on your radar.

(click here if video is not observable)

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Imperfect Substitutes…

Posted on September 25, 2012 by macromon

To say the least!

Take a look at this,

The Lingerie Football League Announces That It Fired “A Couple Crews Which Apparently Are Now Officiating In The NFL” Because Of Incompetence

Because of the LFL’s perception it is that much more critical for us to hire officiating crews that are competent, not only for the credibility of our game but to keep our athletes safer. Due to several on-field incompetent officiating we chose to part ways with with a couple crews which apparently are now officiating in the NFL. We have a lot of respect for our officials but we felt the officiating was not in line with our expectations.

We have not made public comment to date because we felt it was not our place to do so. However in light of tonight’s event, we felt it was only fair that NFL fans knew the truth as to who are officiating these games.

(click here if pictures is not observable)

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Are the Droids Taking Our Jobs? MUST VIEW!

Posted on September 25, 2012 by macromon

We really hope Fed Chairman Bernanke sees this Ted Talk by Andrew McAfee, a management research scientist at MIT’s Sloan School of Management.    QE∞ will not rollback the technological  forces that are shaping the global labor market and risks mutilating the savings of the risk averse and non-speculators,  in our opinion.   Here’s McAfee,

..in the not too long term…we are going to transition into an economy that is very productive but just doesn’t need a lot of human workers.

Mr. McAfee discusses many of the topics we have posted here at the Global Macro Monitor,  including how the Google’s autonomous car will impact the demand for truck drivers!  Google the next FedEx?

Understanding creative destruction and how technological innovation is impacting the labor market is key in guiding policymakers and investors during this disruptive period in our economic history.   Disruptive technologies, in our opinion,  are a factor in today’s record profit margins, why the NASDAQ is outperforming and Google’s stock  is spiking.   It is also why transformative tech is our favorite investment theme.

Have  a listen.

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Employment, Innovation, Technology, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Jobs 2012: State Unemployment Rates

Posted on September 25, 2012 by macromon

Good data  from the BLS today,

In August 2012, 13 states and the District of Columbia recorded statistically significant over-the-month changes in employment, 7 of which were increases. The largest statistically significant increases in employment occurred in Texas (+38,000), Florida (+23,200), and Missouri (+17,900).

The largest statistically significant decline in employment occurred in Virginia (−12,400), followed by the District of Columbia (−11,200) and Washington (−8,800).

Regional and state unemployment rates were generally little changed in August. Nevada continued to record the highest unemployment rate among the states, 12.1 percent in August. Rhode Island and California posted the next highest rates, 10.7 and 10.6 percent, respectively. North Dakota again registered the lowest jobless rate, 3.0 percent.

In August, 21 states reported jobless rates significantly lower than the U.S. figure of 8.1 percent, 12 states had measurably higher rates, and 17 states and the District of Columbia had rates that were not appreciably different from that of the nation.

(click here if charts are not observable)

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Peak Chinese Billionaires

Posted on September 24, 2012 by macromon

Billionaires in China have fallen in numbers for the first time in seven year, according to a report by Hurun, a luxury magazine publisher.

Hurun’s annual report on China’s richest 1,000 people said that this year, China had 251 people worth over US $1 billion. That’s 20 people less compared to last year, and follows six years of the country recording more billionaires each year.  –  NTDTV

(click here if video is not observable)

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