How Dependent is the U.S. on Persian Gulf Oil?

With tensions heating up over Iran (recall our November 5th post, Is Iran About to Get Hot) we’re seeing lots of traffic on our post of last February,  U.S. Dependent on Middle East Oil? Think Again.

Our sense is that most Americans still believe the U.S. imports a large part of its crude oil consumption and that the majority comes from the Middle East.  After all, isn’t that why the U.S. Fifth Fleet is amassing massive firepower in and around the Persian Gulf?

Wrong!  Check out the charts from the E.I.A..

The U.S imports about one half of the crude it consumes, the majority of which comes from the Western Hemisphere, mostly Canada and Mexico.  America’s second largest supplier is Saudi Arabia,  however, which provides around 15-20 percent of imports.  And, of course,  any disruption of Gulf oil would drive the world price of crude through the roof and shred the global economy.

The data will still be a surprise to many.   We’ll follow up later in the week.

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Posted in Black Swan Watch, Crude Oil | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Eurozone Q4 ’11 manufacturing growth weakest since mid-2009

“Eurozone manufacturing is clearly undergoing another recession. Despite the rate of decline easing slightly in December, production appears to have been collapsing across the single currency area at a quarterly rate of approximately 1.5% in the final quarter of 2011.

“The survey also points to a strong likelihood of further declines in the first quarter of the new year, with producers cutting back headcounts, inventories and purchasing.

“Worryingly, new orders are falling at a far faster rate than manufacturers have been cutting output, meaning firms have been reliant on orders placed earlier in the year to sustain current production levels. This is particularly evident in Germany, and suggests that operating capacity will be slashed in coming months unless demand revives.”
– Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit

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Posted in Economics, Euro | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

S&P500 2011 Heat Map

Click map to enlarge and for better resolution.

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Posted in Equities, Global Stock Performance | Tagged | 2 Comments

NorKo’s Kim 3.0

Interesting video but lite on specifics.  Let’s hope the hope about North Korea’s new leader is fully realized.

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Posted in Black Swan Watch, Politics | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Year in Review

Wow!  Who would of thunk it.   The Dow the only major global equity index positive for the year.   U.S. Treasuries up 15-20 percent, the dollar index (Dixe) positive;  Brazil and Chinese equities down 20 percent and India down almost 25 percent.   Copper was on everybody’s buy list at the beginning year, finished down over 20 percent;  and foodstuffs had nowhere to go but north,  finishing flat after spiking earlier in the year and taking most of the political leaders in North Africa with them.

Just goes to show those who remain flexible shall not be broken, or, should we say not go broke!.   Peace and prosperity in 2012 to all.

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Posted in Week in Review | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

2011 ETF Heat Map

Click on map to enlarge and for better resolution.

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Posted in Equities, Global Stock Performance | Tagged | 2 Comments

Global Trend Indicators

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Posted in Week in Review | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Happy New Year!

Thank heaven we’re done with 2011!

Tough year for global macro traders.   A year of bull and bear traps, ridiculous correlations,  absurd trading algorithms, and the full realization the global economy has entered the second phase of the financial crisis that began with the bursting of the credit bubble in 2007.

At the end of the day, we don’t think the sovereign debt crisis stops at the Eurozone border.     Our resolution is, as always, not to over trade,  choose our spots more carefully,  reduce leverage, and remain vigilant.

Peace and prosperity in 2012, folks, and thanks for tuning in to the Global Macro Monitor!


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Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment

Are the Markets Driving European Politics?

Der Spiegel poses the question to former Deutsche Bank CEO Hilmar Kopper in an interesting interview.

SPIEGEL: The markets are driving politics, leaving no doubt as to who is really in charge.

Kopper: I think that’s nonsense. Why does the political class refuse to accept that the market is merely a mirror being held up to them: neutral and incorruptible? What do people mean when they say that politicians must gain control over the markets? A planned economy? It makes me laugh. At times, politicians behave the way we did as little children, when we covered our eyes while playing hide-and-seek and yelled: You can’t see me!

SPIEGEL: So we should have seen the debt crisis coming?

Kopper: Yes, certainly two or three years earlier. Berlin, Paris, Brussels, the ECB, the IMF, the European Commission, the rating agencies, the banks — all of us. It’s the way it was in East Germany, when no one really recognized how broken it was. Or perhaps no one wanted to see it.

SPIEGEL: Is capitalism undermining the democracy that supports it?

Kopper: Why should it?

SPIEGEL: Governments have been replaced everywhere — in Spain, Greece, Italy and Portugal. Voters tend to elect people who aren’t promising overly drastic austerity measures. But “the markets,” for their part, don’t like this at all.

Kopper: The markets also don’t like it when people do nothing but save their money, but nothing can grow without investments. Citizens vote for their governments, even today. This couldn’t be more democratic. The Maastricht Treaty ratified by all member states provided the rules, so that more pressure could be applied to countries that don’t have a handle on their budgets. It was legitimate, and it still is legitimate. And now we Germans are seen as the evil ones in the European concert, just because we insist on stability and sticking to the rules — oh my God! We really have to put up with this.

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Whales | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Think Equal in 2012

Because we have daughters.

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Posted in Demographics, General Interest | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment