Weekly Eurozone Watch

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Week in Review

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Global Trend Indicators

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Chart of the Day: Dollar Top or Breakout?

Tough to bet on a triple top here.  Looks like 82.60 is the next key level, which is the .618 fib retracement of the June 7, 2010/May 2, 2011 move.

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U.S. Employment: The Postman, No FEDEX Delivers

Well, not really the postman — who is at high risk losing his/her job — but maybe FEDEX and UPS.   Note the second chart, government is the only industry that lost jobs.   As long as those jobs are not math or engineering teachers, probably not a bad thing from a macro/micro perspective, unless, of course, you’re the one losing the job.

We’ll take a look at the 2010 employment data to see how many of those jobs created were government/stimulus related.   Our priors — quite a bit!

The private sector are the true job creators,  while government jobs will be in secular decline, in our opinion.    We noticed the Drudgereport headline yesterday,   Drones not Marines,  as the new slimmed down defense strategy.

Nevertheless,  better numbers, better trend, but still tough times for manyAmericans out there, which isn’t fully reflected in the U3 employment data.  So let’s not get all lathered just yet.

Here is the BLS take:

In December, employment in transportation and warehousing rose sharply (+50,000). Almost all of the gain occurred in the couriers and messengers industry (+42,000); seasonal hiring was particularly strong in December.

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Eurozone bond auctions kick off

“Not a good auction, but not a surprise.”

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Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 3 Comments

Sources of U.S. Crude Oil Imports

Here’s the follow up to last night’s post we promised.

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Posted in Crude Oil, Geopolitical | Tagged , | 1 Comment

A Tale of Two Markets

The Shanghai has turned down this evening after opening up and looks to continue the downtrend.  That is one ugly chart.

Meanwhile, the S&P500 looks like it really wants to resolve its wedge formation to the upside.  After a year of head fakes,  bull and bear traps, traders may have lost a little trust in the charts, however.   A good employment number on Friday may provide a nice catalyst for some resolution.

Keep the Shanghai on the radar this year.  If it continues down and does not respond to further monetary easing, which we expect before the Chinese New Year,  think tail risk.

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Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Equities | Tagged , | 2 Comments

The Iron Lady

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HSBC Brazil PMI Shows Weakest Deterioration Since Decline

“The main message from the latest HSBC Manufacturing PMI index is that the deterioration in Brazil’s manufacturing sector business conditions continued to ease in December. The headline index remains just under the 50.0 waterline (49.1), indicating that the sector is still contracting, but this was nonetheless the third consecutive monthly rise in the PMI. Overall, the PMI suggests that the worst of the current economic downturn may indeed be behind us.”
-Andre Loes, Chief Economist, Brazil at HSBC

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