QOTD = Quote of the Day
Inflationary pressures have started to return to
the manufacturing sector, with October seeing the first – albeit slight – increases in both input costs and output
prices since the first half of 2019. Demand conditions
across manufacturing and its supply chain look to be
returning to something that resembles ‘normal’, and so
more firms have started to up prices. – German PMI, Markit
The term ‘Amen Corner’- used to describe the series of holes around the 11th, the par three 12th and 13th holes – was first used in print by author Herbert Warren Wind in an issue of Sports Illustrated in 1958. However, in another piece 26 years later, he revealed that 1930’s jazz number entitled ‘Shoutin in that Amen Corner’ was his inspiration. – Golf 365
Read the full article here
Brothers and sisters we got hypocrites in this crowd
Brothers and sisters some of you are shoutin’ too loud
You’ll find out on judgment day you can’t fool the Lord that way
Brothers and sisters hear all I’ve got to say
You can shout with all your might but if you ain’t livin’ right
There’s no use shoutin’ in that amen corner
If your name on that roll all that noise won’t save your soul
So stop your shoutin’ in that amen corner
Just because you’ve paid your dues doesn’t mean your saved
You can’t win them golden shoes if you haven’t behaved
you better think before you shout for your sins will find you out
So stop that shoutin’ in that amen corner
I can’t hear my own self praechin’
For your shoutin’ and your screachin’
You make me forget my text
Every meetin’ leaves me vexed
Why you come here and pray on Sunday
Then you serve the devil Monday
If you want to save your soul
Better get some self control
You can shout with all your might but if you ain’t livin’ right
There’s no use shoutin’ in that amen corner
If your name on that roll all that noise won’t save your soul
So stop your shoutin’ in that amen corner
Shoutin’ here don’t mean a thing if your playin; with fire
Change your ways or you won’t sing in that heavenly choir
Makes no difference how you look if your record ain’t in that book
You’ve heard my preachin’ every one
so put old satan on the run
So stop that shoutin’ in that amen corner
Here are two reasons why the yuan is showing new strength. Insights via @CME Group: https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/…
BFTP: Blast From The Past
Master’s Week in November. Whoa!
My top three picks this week for total money won: Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, and Justin Thomas, with DJ taking home the Green Jacket.
Answer to yesterday’s Masters quiz question:
Anthony Kim posted 11 birdies in the second round of the 2009 Masters.
Here’s some more 19th hole fodder to impress your buddies and something I bet you didn’t know about Augusta: German POWs from nearby Camp Gordon built the bridge over Rae’s Creek next to the 13th tee box during WWII. They were part of Rommel’s Panzer division in North Africa responsible for building bridges to enable tanks to cross rivers.
While Augusta National is famed for its almost unnaturally beautiful flora, as it turns out some rather interesting fauna once called the course home as well: 200 heads of cattle and more than 1,400 turkeys. From 1943 until late 1944, Augusta National was closed for play and transformed into a farm of sorts to help support the war effort. Some of the turkeys were given to club members during Christmas (meat rations were in effect) while the rest were sold to local residents to help fund the club. And the cows? Well, they acted as natural lawnmowers but also inflicted quite a bit of damage to Augusta National, devouring many of the course’s famed plants and shrubs.
To help repair cattle-related damage and revive Augusta National for its reopening, 42 German prisoners of war from nearby Camp Gordon were shuttled back and forth to work on the course.
Writes John Strege in “When War Played Through: Golf During World War II:”
“The POWs had been with the engineering crew serving Rommel, the Desert Fox, in North Africa, part of the Panzer division responsible for building bridges that enabled German tanks to cross rivers. It was a useful skill for the renovation work to be done at Augusta National. The Germans were asked to erect a bridge over Rae’s Creek adjacent to the tee box at the thirteenth hole.”
The Masters resumed at Augusta National — now free of German prisoners and barnyard animals — in 1946. And interestingly enough, the Supreme Commander of the Allied Forces in Europe during World War II, Dwight D. Eisenhower, later became a member of Augusta National. Two Augusta National landmarks bearing Eisenhower’s name still stand today: the Eisenhower Tree (a loblolly pine at the 17th hole that the former president and avid golfer repeatedly struck with golf balls and requested be cut down; photo above) and the Eisenhower Cabin (built in the 1950s according to Secret Service security guidelines by the club for the former president’s visits).
Today’ (November 10, 2020) Practice Round
Jon Rahm “skips the pond” to ace #16. Amazing!
MUST VIEW
Cyclical companies are sensitive to economic cycles and their stocks outperform the market when the economy is doing well and underperform when the market is doing poorly. Secular companies generally underperform when the economy is strong and overperform when the economy is weak.
Insights via @CME Group: https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/…
Corrections
Correction posted at 8:41 PM PT, November 2 – Our original post earlier this evening assigned too many EC votes to Michigan, 26 instead of the correct 16. We have now corrected the mistake and made the appropriate edits.
Correction posted 11:56 AM PT, November 3 – A friend pointed out this morning we had Rhode Island, the bluest of blue states, in the worng colunm for Trump. We have moved the states 4 EC votes over to Biden and made the appropriate edits.
I will never forget the election-eve of four years ago. The members of my debate club had been making predictions on the outcome of the presidential elections going back the last 12 years.
I held out making mine until the last minute and popped into Barnes & Noble just before they were closing. I noticed the “Madame President” magazines had already been placed on the racks. Bad omen, I thought.
I emailed my prediction when I got home.
“Trump wins electoral college, Hillary the popular vote.”
The skeptical emails came back, “are you sure?”
Ironically, from the same people that are trashing the election prediction that my daughter and I came up with tonight as part of a thought experiment for her government class.
Huge Increase In Turnout
Given the huge early voting, close to 100 million, 75 percent of the total 2016 vote, as we write, we project total turnout will increase by 20 percent over 2016’s total vote to 163 million.
Though these numbers are distorted by the COVID pandemic and thus lots of noise, we think much of the new turnout will come from the younger generations, who overwhelmingly support Biden; and from those coming out to vote against the President, not to reaffirm his presidency.
Our Projections & Analysis
Biden wins 350 EC votes and 51.4 percent of the popular vote, beating Trump by 7.8 percent.
This is not that far from the predictions we made in April.
We suspect a Blue 1980-ish outcome in the popular vote where Trump wins around 41 percent of the popular vote (close to where he is currently polling), which is about the same percentage as President Carter won, but wins a bit more than the six states than Carter did in the electoral college.
For example, if Trump loses Michigan (65% prob), Pennsylvania (61% prob), Arizona (54% prob), and Florida (47% prob) and manages to hold all the other 26 states he took in 2016, that puts him at 228 electoral votes, well short of the 270 needed for reelection. – GMM, April 13, 2020
We also think this may be even too conservative and Biden could take Ohio and Texas, which would give him 412 electoral votes versus 126 for Trump.
Of course, we will be off and wrong on many of the numbers below but we’re in the arena, folks. Heed the words of TR and hold your stones before casting them at those who stumble in the arena.
As they say, “stay tuned.”
The fifth plenum, China’s major policy meeting, took place behind closed doors in Beijing from October 26-29, 2020. The 200-member strong Central Committee, the top decision-making body of the ruling party, delivered a work report, a draft five-year plan and a document outlining China’s long-term objectives up to 2035. The 14th five-year plan’s key targets were disclosed in a communique that was issued after the plenum on October 29. The plan for the coming years includes measures to identify policy priorities for keeping the economy growing amid the Covid-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions, toxic relations with the West and the looming global economic downturn. More detailed drafts of the five-year plan will be released in the coming weeks. It will be approved by China’s top lawmaking body, the National People’s Congress, in March 2021.
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