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Yearly Archives: 2018
Macro Swan Watch: German-Italy Sovereign Spread
The 10-year German-Italy sovereign spread out another 26 bps today, that’s almost 70 bps wider in the month of May. The swans continue to gather.
Posted in Uncategorized
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Just to be clear….
Markets are all lathered up over a China Trade deal? WTF? Alternatively, is the market higher because of just the cessation of hostility and talk the trade war is now “on hold.” Whatever the case, here is the exchange with … Continue reading
How Sustainable Is Earnings Growth?
Not very. We will leave the calculation for the entire stock market to the stock analysts. Here’s why: Just glancing over WalMart’s latest earnings release from the week, we see two one-off macro factors that helped WalMart’s earnings in Q1, … Continue reading
The Upheaval in Central America – Project Syndicate
The macro swans continue (swans = crows in this video) to gather. Social and political upheaval in Central America – in particular, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua – is sending many north in search of a better life. The region’s current … Continue reading
Posted in Geopolitical, Politics, Uncategorized
Tagged Central America, Geopoltics, Violence
34 Comments
Week In Review – May 18
Summary Omnifarious selling in emerging markets this week and signal global liquidity is tightening up EM 10-year yields higher across the board from Mexico up 20 bps to Turkey up 125 bps Euro periphery spreads blow out. Italy 34 bps … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized, Week in Review
Tagged bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Global equity markets, Performance, Stocks, Week in Review
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Global Risk Monitor – May 18
Posted in Daily Risk Monitor, Uncategorized
Tagged bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Global Equities, Performance, Stocks
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How Italy Became Eurosceptic & Why It Matters – FT
Watch this space. What we said ten days ago. The Italian 10-year government bond is 112 bps through the U.S. 10-year note yield, and the country doesn’t have an independent central bank! Moreover, the Germans are coming to town at the … Continue reading
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Deconstructing The U.S. Jobs Market
Summary We compare the first 15 payroll reports of the Trump administration to the last 15 of the Obama administration As of the end of April 2018, the Trump economy has generated 2.7 million jobs versus 3.1 million in Obama’s … Continue reading
Posted in Employment, Uncategorized
Tagged Job Creation, Trump versus Obama Job Creation, U.S. nonfarm payrolls
3 Comments
Long-Term Yields Break Higher
The 10-year Treasury yield broke out and closed above a new 5-year high today. If you didn’t catch our analysis from a few weeks back why long-term interest rates were set to move higher, run don’t walk to, Prepare For Much … Continue reading
Global Macro Monitor 