…AI data centers are likely to require enormous amounts of copper to meet their capacity needs… – Barron’s, July 9, 2022

Back in September 2022, Global Macro Monitor made the call:

“If you are not buying copper hand-over-fist here, at $3.54 per lbs., you should be.  – Global Macro Monitor,  Sept 2022

Since then, copper has rallied nearly 70%, driven not just by fundamentals, but now by fear and politics.

Distortions Everywhere

The latest jolt? President Trump’s threat to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper. The result was the biggest one-day surge in copper prices ever recorded, with futures hitting an all-time high of $5.69 per pound. But this isn’t a signal of booming industrial activity—it’s a distortion of the copper market and a gag order on “Dr. Copper,” long considered a prominent leading indicator of economic health.

Trump’s tariff talk is reverberating across the economy. Copper is everywhere—wiring, plumbing, EVs, data centers, semiconductors, AI infrastructure, housing, and renewables. Tariffs would hit not just miners or traders, but every supply chain that touches electrification or digitization. The AI buildout, for example, could face serious cost overruns, delaying deployments that are core to U.S. tech competitiveness.

Meanwhile, housing could see another $10,000+ tacked on to already strained new home costs, compounding inflation in construction and further distorting the Fed’s policy response. All of this—on top of already tight domestic supply and years-long lead times for new mining projects.

Trump’s copper move doesn’t just lack strategy—it defies logic. It penalizes allies, clouds price signals, and undercuts the very sectors his administration claims to support. In short, Dr. Copper can no longer do its job, and that’s a dangerous sign.

This is not industrial policy. This is economic malpractice—inflicting uncertainty, inflation, and dysfunction on an economy already walking a tightrope.

The table is set.  TACOs or bread crumbs?   Stay tuned.