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Author Archives: macromon
Ten Year Expected Returns
Ten Year Expected Returns. Nominal returns expected for the next decade, based on valuations model, see best opportunities in the depressed $EEM stock space with an 8% return.$SPY stocks are priced at 2.6% for the next 10 years while $EFA … Continue reading
Posted in Bonds, Economics, Equities, Uncategorized
Tagged Ten Year Expected Returns, Valuation
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Party Like It’s 1999: U.S. – German 2-year Yield Divergence
What does this mean for capital flows? Euro should weaken, but it ain’t! ECB timid and waaaay behind the curve. The policy divergence between the U.S. & Germany is widening. The gap between U.S. & German 2-year yields is at … Continue reading
Posted in Bonds, German Bund, Germany, Uncategorized
Tagged 2-year yields, Germany, U.S.
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Bond Yields and Equity Prices
Interesting chart which reflects what we have been preaching for years. Central bank distorted and repressed bond yields result in a mispricing of all other assets. This chart goes a step further and quantifies it, though it assumes “all other … Continue reading
Posted in Equities, Interest Rates, Uncategorized
Tagged Bond Yields, Distortion, Equity Prices
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Merkel Fails To Form Government
After almost two months since the September 24th general election German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her alliance of Christian Democratic Union and Bavaria’s Christian Social Union has been unsuccessful in forming a new coalition government. Merkel needed the support of the … Continue reading
Posted in Germany, Politics, Real Estate, Uncategorized
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Global Risk Monitor – November 17
Posted in Daily Risk Monitor, Uncategorized
Tagged bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Global equity markets, Performance, Stocks
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How Xi Jinping Went From Feeding Pigs to Ruling China
How did Xi Jinping go from being a provincial politician to China’s paramount leader in such a short period of time? In this Bloomberg Profile, we look at the life of China’s 7th President and his campaign against dissent. ———- … Continue reading
QOTD: Extrapolate This Late?
Most of the time the future is indeed like the past, and so extrapolation doesn’t do any harm. But at the important turning points, when the future stops being like the past, extrapolation fails and large amounts of money are … Continue reading
QOTD: Vive la France!
“France is a paradise populated by people who believe they are in hell,” the writer Sylvain Tesson said in a radio interview earlier this year. – Bloomberg (QOTD = Quote of the Day)
Five markets charts for investors – FT
The FT markets team’s focus this week: a Chinese stocks rally, the sovereign debt market being crowded by central banks’ bonds re-purchasing programmes, trades with zero yield climb to $11tn, and US money supply growth might mean the bull market … Continue reading
Global Macro Monitor 