Author Archives: macromon

Global Energy Shock 2.0 — Asia Hit Hard

Posted on March 23, 2026 by macromon

The global economy just got reacquainted with a familiar antagonist: a Middle East energy shock, this time with a sharper edge. The effective shutdown of Persian Gulf energy flows — roughly 20% of global supply — has sent oil ripping … Continue reading →

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S&P500 Key Levels

Posted on March 22, 2026 by macromon

The S&P 500 closed at the lower end of its multi-month trading range, a band that has effectively contained price action since September. That alone raises the obvious question: is this a breakdown, or just another shakeout within a range-bound … Continue reading →

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Holy Shiite……..Seat Belts!

Posted on March 22, 2026 by macromon

Must view, folks. Mr. Market is not going to like this. Be sure to view, especially the last.

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Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – March 20

Posted on March 21, 2026 by macromon

The dominant market story this past week was not simply that risk assets sold off, it was that geopolitics forcibly rewired the macro regime. The escalation surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz has shifted markets from a “disinflation + … Continue reading →

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Iran’s Drones: Small, Cheap, Lethal

Posted on March 21, 2026 by macromon
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Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – March 13

Posted on March 14, 2026 by macromon

Global markets ended the week in classic late-cycle fashion: equities tried to look composed, while everything underneath them looked increasingly less so. The dominant macro transmission channel was energy. The Iran conflict and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz … Continue reading →

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The Oil Shock vs. Irrational Resilience

Posted on March 12, 2026 by macromon

As we approach the Ides of March, the S&P 500 is performing a high-wire act that should give even the most seasoned bull a case of vertigo. Currently sitting at 6,672, the index is a mere 4.7% below its recent … Continue reading →

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Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – March 6

Posted on March 8, 2026 by macromon

The global market narrative has been utterly hijacked by the seventh day of the U.S./Iran conflict. While Washington demands “unconditional surrender,” the energy markets are issuing a surrender of their own, to pure, unadulterated upward momentum. Crude oil prices surged … Continue reading →

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Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – Feb 27

Posted on February 28, 2026 by macromon

This commentary will necessarily be speculative. Trading this week will likely be dominated by the breakout of war with Iran. However, markets do not trade in the short-term on logic; they trade on positioning, leverage, and emotion, often in that … Continue reading →

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Waiting On, err Dissing…………..GEICO

Posted on February 28, 2026 by macromon

My auto insurance premium just leapt 64% at renewal. No accidents. No tickets. No DUI. No claims. Not even a dirty look at a stop sign. Apparently, the new underwriting model is: “Because we can.” Nothing says economic “victory” like … Continue reading →

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