Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

Tough Day in Euroland

Posted on April 10, 2012 by macromon

Europe came back from its long Easter weekend and took a nasty spanking. Spain’s sovereign spread over German bunds blew out 26.3 bps and is within 40 bps of its November high, while Italy moved 27.4 bps wider.   The large … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Equities, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, German Bund, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Oh Doctor!

Posted on April 10, 2012 by macromon

We’re not talking Fatty Arbuckle and Buster Keaton,  but Dr. Copper, the metal, which is breaking key support at 3.70 today.  One of the indicator species of the health of the global economy,  copper is confirming trend breaks in other … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Commodities, Economics | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Ugly Chart Contest: Trend Breakers

Posted on April 8, 2012 by macromon

It’s gettin’ ugly out there again, folks. (click here if chart is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Charts, Technical Analysis, Ugly Chart Contest | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

60 Minutes: Europe’s Debt Crisis

Posted on April 8, 2012 by macromon

CBS’ 60 minutes aired this report tonight. Well worth your time. When the tide goes away you see those who do not have a swimming costume on.   And that was the case in Europe – Christine Lagarde (click here if … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Markets Want More FED “Crack” – Harry Dent

Posted on April 4, 2012 by macromon

Harry Dent does a pretty good job in ‘splaining today’s risk sell-off, in our opinion. We’re beginning to sense, however, the markets are awakening to the fact the U.S. government is going to have a funding problem. As the world … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Budget Deficit, Gold, Japan, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Good Perspective on China’s Dueling PMIs

Posted on April 2, 2012 by macromon

Good stuff at European CNBC this morning.  The markets had their doubts on China’s conflicting PMIs early this morning, especially after the Eurozone PMI confirmed weakness.   Didn’t last long, however, after U.S. ISM manufacturing came in better than expected, … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Greece’s Human Capital Flight

Posted on April 1, 2012 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Employment, Euro, PIIGS, Policy, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

China’s Dueling PMIs: Official Expands, HSBC Contracts

Posted on April 1, 2012 by macromon

The markets must make a choice on Monday as to what China Purchasing Managers’ Index — official or the HSBC — they want to focus on and believe. The official data released  today by National Bureau of Statistics shows the … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, BRICs, China | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

Charlie Rose: Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson

Posted on March 31, 2012 by macromon

Excellent discussion on the U.S. fiscal crisis with Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson.  They were co-chairs of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, commissioned by President Obama in 2010 to identify “…policies to improve the fiscal situation in the … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Economics, Interviews, Politics, Sovereign Risk, State and Local Government | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Real Pain in Greece

Posted on March 31, 2012 by macromon

This chart of Greece retail sales comes to us from Reuters via the Zahari blog in Athens.   It encapsulates the economic collapse that is taking place in Greece.  We seriously doubt the U.S. or most of the core of Europe … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, PIIGS, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment