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Category Archives: Black Swan Watch
Quote of the Day: Siemens’ McSwan Watch
Siemens AG (SIE), Europe’s largest engineering company, reported decent numbers this morning, including strong growth from the emerging markets. But listen to CEO, Peter Loescher, on the conference call this morning. He is vigilantly monitoring the many macro swans, including … Continue reading
Charts of the Day: Asian Credit Bubble?
Great chart from Deustche Bank of Asian home prices indexed to Jan’07. It’s becoming increasingly clear, at least to us, that a big part of Asia is in massive credit/asset bubble and as monetary tightening plays out their day of … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, China, Commodities, Credit, Crude Oil, Currency
Tagged Asian Home Prices, Credit Bubble
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Chart of the Day: Dixie Swan Dive
Don’t know about you, but we’re feeling a little poorer after the FOMC statement and Chairman Ben’s historic press conference. One spark away from a full blown dollar panic, in our opinion. (click here if chart is not observable)
A Credible & Comprehensive Plan for Europe’s Debt Crisis
The following is the Executive Summary of a longer article that offers up a credible and comprehensive plan for the European Debt Crisis, which deals with the periphery debt overhang and weak balance sheets of Europe’s commercial banks. It has … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Currency, Euro, Geopolitical, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk
Tagged Brady Plan, European Sovereign Debt Crisis, Greece, Ireland, Portugal
1 Comment
Euro Fracture: Angry Greeks
The following article was posted today on SpiegelOnline and reflects the toxic and fractious politics in the Eurozone. Whether it is the historic turnout for the True Finns on Sunday or the Angry Greeks suing German newspapers, Europe is, at … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Currency, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk
Tagged Aphrodite, Europeand Sovereign Debt Crisis, Focus Magazine, Germany, Greece
1 Comment
While Washington (and the Fed) Fiddle…..
Sorry about the hiatus. We’ve been working on a special project that could be big and will share when and if possible. Thought we’d start by re-posting our gas price sensitivity analysis to show the cost of the U.S. government’s … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Commodities, Muni Bonds
Tagged Congress, Federal Reserve, Fiscal Deficit, Gas Prices, Obama, oil prices
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Stronger Euro Will Slaughter the PIIGS
The Euro keeps moving higher on expectations of an ECB interest rate hike and what is beginning to appear almost terminal dollar weakness. The export destination mix of Ireland, for example, is around 60 percent to the EU 27 and … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Charts, Currency, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk
Tagged Euro, European Sovereign Debt Crisis, Ireland, PIIGS
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NIKKEI One Day 10% Declines
(click here if charts are not observable)
Chart Update: Kobe Earthquake Impact on NIKKEI and Yen
We’ve made a slight adjustment and updated our chart of the NIKKEI and $/Yen trajectory after the 1995 Kobe Earthquake. A slight scale adjustment to the currency axis makes the Yen move much clearer. It also shows how tight … Continue reading
The Global Economy’s Unstable Equilibrium
We’ve put together this nice little graphic which reflects our view the global economy is in a very unstable equilibrium and list many of the issues and headwinds it faces. Global economic growth, based on monetary or credit induced asset … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Charts, Economics, Policy, Politics
Tagged Deflation, Global Economy, Inflation, Unstable Equilibrium
6 Comments
Global Macro Monitor 