Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

MS Poll: 53% Believe US Debt Crisis By 2012

Posted on October 4, 2010 by macromon

An interesting chart from the Business Insider of the results of a Morgan Stanley survey of 150 clients at a recent investment conference.   Shockingly, more than 50% of the investors polled believe the US will experience a sovereign debt … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Credit, Monetary Policy, News, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Black Swans Everywhere

Posted on September 29, 2010 by macromon

Equities are holding up well given some very ugly headlines (see below).   The markets ignored the strikes in Europe today, which is quite remarkable as it was the live CNBC video feed of the Greek riots that got the flash … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Commodities, Currency, Geopolitical | Leave a comment

The New Gold Rush?

Posted on September 28, 2010 by macromon

Rare Earth (REE) stocks,  including Molycorp,  got hammered today and we added a little to our position.  These  stocks are over extended as most are up over 100 percent in the past month. We believe this story has legs and … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Commodities, Equities, Geopolitical, Gold, Rare Earth Elements | Tagged , | 3 Comments

Rare Earth Day

Posted on September 27, 2010 by macromon

Rare Earth Elements (REE) have shown up on our radar as shares of Molycorp (MCP), one of the largest and only producers outside China,  has doubled in the past month.   REEs have no substitutes and are critical material inputs for … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Commodities, Equities, Geopolitical, Rare Earth Elements | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Ding-Dong in Hong Kong! Is that a bell ringing?

Posted on September 23, 2010 by macromon

We don’t really hang with the deflation crowd much, but a hard landing in China is the one scenario that keeps us up at night.  China is the locomotive of the global economy and we monitor events there very closely. … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Uncategorized | 2 Comments