Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

Bonds Behaving Badly

Posted on February 1, 2018 by macromon

We began the week with our Watch This Space post: Because the eurozone is where the big bond bubble lives. Though the euro periphery is now in Convergence 2.0 mode on hopes of eMac’s vision of a more integrated ‘zone, … Continue reading →

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How to spot a financial crisis before it spots you – PunkFT

Posted on November 4, 2017 by macromon

Can we protect ourselves from the next banking meltdown? David McWilliams separates myth from reality to help identify a few rules of thumb. ► Subscribe to FT.com here: http://bit.ly/2r8RJzM

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Asset Markets, The Sports Illustrated Jinx, And The Dodgers

Posted on September 8, 2017 by macromon

Why do stocks and assets markets crash? Why is there is a Sports Illustrated jinx and magazine cover stories often signal a sign of a top or bottom of the subject being portrayed? Regression to the mean, or, more simply, … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Equities, Housing, Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 23 Comments

Sovereign Risk and Debt Crises

Posted on April 2, 2017 by macromon

We received some interesting pushback on our recent post, Is the U.S. Government Bankrupt?  Not Even Close. The purpose of the post was to remind readers to not ignore the left side of a government’s balance sheet — assets —  … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Italy, Japan, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

China: towering credit – FT

Posted on February 27, 2014 by macromon

China is reining in capital investments as the authorities show their determination to slow credit growth. Rafael Halpin, a China Confidential analyst, explains to John Authers the scale and the implications of China’s slowdown.   –  FT (click here if video … Continue reading →

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Weekend Lecture: Bend, Not Break – Ping Fu

Posted on February 1, 2013 by macromon

This is a great story! CEO of GeoMagic Ping Fu discusses her book – “Bend not Break: A Life in Two Worlds” with Google’s Chade-Meng Tan. *********************************************************** (click here if video is not observable)

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Stratfor: 2013 Annual Forecast Preview

Posted on January 3, 2013 by macromon

This is a great preview of the potential geopolitical swans you should monitoring in 2013. Stratfor’s Vice President of Global Analysis Reva Bhalla discusses the key geopolitical developments for 2013. For more analysis, visit: http://www.Stratfor.com (click here if video is … Continue reading →

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The Collaspe In Cosmic GDP

Posted on December 18, 2012 by macromon

Wow! Peak oil.  Peak food production.  Now (11 billion years ago) peak star production. The Royal Astronomical Society writes, ‘Cosmic GDP’ crashes 97% as star formation slumps While parts of the world experience economic hardship, a team of Portuguese, UK, … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Chart of the Day, General Interest | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

“US Set to Restage Greek Tragedy” – Der Spiegel

Posted on November 8, 2012 by macromon

How is the rest of the world (ROW) viewing America’s fiscal problems? Here is Germany’s Der Speigel, The US has more in common with heavily indebted southern European countries than it might like to admit. And if the country doesn’t … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Dollar, Fiscal Policy, Germany | Tagged , , , | 15 Comments

The Political Black Swan

Posted on October 19, 2012 by macromon

Fiscal cliff collides with a replay of the Bush v Gore 2000 fiasco.  Not good. We noted in an earlier post today Governor Romney has moved ahead of President Obama on the Real Clear Politics electoral map for the first … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Politics | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments