Category Archives: Bonds

The Full Monti

Posted on November 13, 2011 by macromon

This is it.  We’re expecting a nice year-end relief rally on the back of the the positive political developments and rise of the technocrats in Italy an Greece.   A vote of confidence from the ECB could really give the rally … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, PIIGS, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Economist: Italy to determine euro’s survival – or destruction

Posted on November 10, 2011 by macromon

When the world’s third-largest bond market begins to buckle, catastrophe looms. At stake is not just the Italian economy but Spain, Portugal, Ireland, the euro, the European Union’s single market, the global banking system, the world economy, and pretty much … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Currency, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Mr. (Bond) Market Prepares to Take Down Silvio

Posted on November 7, 2011 by macromon

Remember the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis?   The bond and currency markets took down Indonesia’s Suharto regime, which survived three decades of student protests, attempted coups, and external pressure.   What tanks couldn’t do, markets did. With G-Pap now gone Club Med … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Euro, Geopolitical, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

M.F. Euro Takes Down Equities

Posted on October 31, 2011 by macromon

Lots of debate out there what took the market down today.  We’re not certain you can tag the first 15 S&P points on a single factor — MF Global, euro,  Italy, yen intervention and strong dollar, or simple profit taking … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Dollar, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

U.S. Public Debt: Going Greek

Posted on October 18, 2011 by macromon

Here is one chart that may be used in our grandchildren’s economic and political history classes.   The current debt service burden on the national debt (as % of GDP) is as low as it has been in last thirty years.  … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Economics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 6 Comments

Belgium Waffles w/ Irish Coffee = No Free Brunch

Posted on October 17, 2011 by macromon

Over the weekend we posted a chart illustrating how French bond yields are blowing out.  Zero Hedge posted the following chart today illustrating the Belgium – German yield spread has just hit a new high.  ZH has been spot on … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Credit, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Spooky Chart: French with an Irish Brogue

Posted on October 15, 2011 by macromon

Here is the one chart via Reuters that scares us most.   French bond yields relative to 10-year German bonds have been spiking.  The market seems concerned that a large commitment by France to backstop or recapitalize its banking system could … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Local Government Financing in China

Posted on October 6, 2011 by macromon

Yikes!  Look what California’s dependence on tax revenues from the dot.com and housing bubbles did to that state’s fiscal health.   We’re going to see some fugly naked bodies when the tide recedes in China.   Keep this one on your … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Muni Market, State and Local Government | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Sarkozy: Europe “morally obliged” to help Greece

Posted on September 30, 2011 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Video | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

QE and the “Crowding Out” of the Bond Market Vigilante

Posted on September 29, 2011 by macromon

We’ve updated our chart of the sources of financing of the U.S. budget deficit from the Fed’s Flow of Funds data released on September 16th.   The chart illustrates how the Fed and foreign central banks have been indirectly fully … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , | 5 Comments