Category Archives: Economics

Nonlinear Thinking: The Coming iApp Economic Revolution

Posted on January 6, 2011 by macromon

2011 – The Year of the App This is freaking amazing!  It’s our sense that in five years Apple may well have reinvented itself into a mobile medical company, where an iPhone/iPad-type device becomes a medical clinic in, say,  a … Continue reading →

Posted in Apple, Economics, Equities, Video | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Quote of the Day

Posted on January 6, 2011 by macromon

LBJ has a treasure and given our economics background,  this is one of his best, Making a speech on economics is a lot like pissing down your leg. It seems hot to you, but it never does to anyone else. … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Quote of the Day, Quotes | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Betting on a Jobs Recovery, Christie, and Brown….

Posted on January 3, 2011 by macromon

Like others, we can’t help but notice the massive outperformance of small caps in 2010, with the Russell 2000 doubling the performance of the S&P500. The Russell was up over 25 percent in 2010.  Isn’t this only supposed to happen … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Economics, Employment, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Muni Bonds, Muni Market, Politics | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Nonlinear Thinking: Synthetic Palladium

Posted on January 3, 2011 by macromon

Linear thinking dominates economics and finance and was one of root causes of the recent financial crisis.  It is clear to us, the economy and financial markets are nonlinear systems.  In hindsight,  the collapse of the financial system showed risk … Continue reading →

Posted in Apple, Clean Tech, Commodities, Economics, Policy, Rare Earth Elements, Technology | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Are we too short Bernanke?

Posted on January 2, 2011 by macromon

Sometimes we like to channel our inner bull, as in bovine, which is rare for ex-bond traders.  Trying to see all angles of the dimly lit statue we call the market is a necessity to manage the risk that: a)  … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Economics, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Lumber Rising…….Jobs to Follow?

Posted on December 22, 2010 by macromon

We wrote yesterday of the almost 50 percent increase in lumber prices since mid-June and how it bodes well for the U.S. labor market.  We’ve constructed a cleaner chart to show how nonfarm employment moves with lumber. Though prices are … Continue reading →

Posted in Commodities, Economics | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Dead Wood No Longer

Posted on December 21, 2010 by macromon

Take a look at lumber prices.  In the days of traditional monetary policy in a normal economy,  the Fed would lower interest rates and the construction sector would lead the economy out of recession.   Lumber prices were  a leading indicator. … Continue reading →

Posted in Commodities, Economics, Equities | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Increase in Petroleum Deliveries Signals Stronger Economy

Posted on December 20, 2010 by macromon

A good friend and one of the best energy hedge fund managers sent this over this morning. It is from Downstream Today.com, Total U.S. petroleum deliveries (a measure of demand) increased 6.5 percent in November compared with November 2009, evidence … Continue reading →

Posted in Crude Oil, Economics, Energy | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Rollover Risk 2011- Sovereign Financing Needs

Posted on December 17, 2010 by macromon

Sovereign rollover risk will be one of the major issues to monitor for 2011.   The following are some key data tables and charts produced by the IMF.   The most vulnerable countries to a rollover shock and/or failed bond auctions … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Economics, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Holders of U.S. Public Debt

Posted on December 15, 2010 by macromon

The best table we’ve seen on the U.S. government’s major creditors.  Nice compliment to our Dec11 post, Who’s Funding the U.S. Budget Deficit.  The U.S. government’s  fiscal year begins October1 and ends September 30.

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Economics, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments