Category Archives: Politics

American Democracy In A Bear Market

Posted on December 2, 2019 by macromon

…As partisans have drifted apart geographically and ideologically, they’ve become more hostile toward each other. In 1960, less than 5 percent of Democrats and Republicans said they’d be unhappy if their children married someone from the other party; today, 35 … Continue reading →

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The Night the Red Light Went Out in Georgia?

Posted on November 14, 2019 by macromon

Is Roxane about to put off the Republican red light in Georgia? Stunning New Poll In Georgia It ain’t over ‘til it’s over but the latest polling data from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution is nothing less than stunning.   A Republican presidential candidate has only … Continue reading →

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Time To Start Discounting A Hard Left Turn

Posted on October 21, 2019 by macromon

 “I don’t like the Democrats, but Trump is destroying the Republic!  – Retired Four-Star General (See Admiral McRaven’s editoral below)  Last week was a very bad week for President Trump and may, in hindsight, be the tipping point of his … Continue reading →

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The Coming Political Oktoberfest

Posted on September 28, 2019 by macromon

So we missed by a week or two. Coming “Summer Political Discontent?” There will be some political instability into a second referendum vote as the Brexiteers take to the street.  Depending on how things shape up with President Trump’s legal … Continue reading →

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My 6 Sigma Political Scenario Now Trending On Twitter

Posted on September 25, 2019 by macromon

I took so much incoming for this part of a post (reposted yesterday) I wrote back in May 2017.  People would look at me as I was crazy when I laid out the unlikely scenario, which, I admit, was written … Continue reading →

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Beware Shorting Impeachments

Posted on September 24, 2019 by macromon

Reposting a piece from a few years back to provide some market perspective on today’s news.  There are a confluence of events, not just political instability, of why we believe stocks are headed lower, including valuations and the shifting of … Continue reading →

Posted in Politics, President Trump, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Impeachment Market Update

Posted on September 23, 2019 by macromon

Since our post on the impeachment market about nine hours ago, the 2019 contract is up 81 percent, from 21 to 38, and 322 percent in the past week.   Annualize that return! Mr. Market is not priced for the … Continue reading →

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Impeachment Prediction Market Flying

Posted on September 23, 2019 by macromon

Check out the prediction market on impeachment over at PredictIt. Odds Have Moved From 11:1 To 4.8:1 Trump Will Now Impeached By Year-End The contract that Trump will be impeached by the end of 2019 is up 133 percent in … Continue reading →

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The Summer Of Discontent

Posted on August 3, 2019 by macromon

See full story here. We have been all over this one since early spring.   Never works out exactly as expected but content to be in the same zip code.

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Why Did Stocks Fall After Rate Cut?

Posted on July 31, 2019 by macromon

Gravity.  Stock prices are waaay too high. Stocks went down not because the Fed messed up.  If they needed to cut 50 bps and signal more to come because of coming economic weakness, what in heavens name were stocks doing … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 3 Comments