Category Archives: Sovereign Risk

Euro Fracture: Germany’s House Party Revolt

Posted on December 15, 2010 by macromon

Go no further than the chart below to understand the resentment and anger among the German taxpayers who are being asked to clean-up the “House Party” of fellow EU members.   The chart shows the housing bubbles of Ireland and Spain … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Economics, Euro, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Video | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Europe’s Big Fail…

Posted on December 15, 2010 by macromon

One lesson we have learned during the financial crisis is that a country’s banking system is an indirect liability of the sovereign.  That is, unless the government is willing to allow banks to fail and let the domestic financial sector … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Budget Deficit, Euro, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Rollover Risk: Moody’s Warns on Spain

Posted on December 15, 2010 by macromon

“Rollover risk” will be a major theme in 2011 and Moody’s is getting an early start.  Bloomberg writes, Spain had its Aa1 local and foreign currency government bond ratings placed on review for possible downgrade by Moody’s Investors Service. The … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Euro, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Fed Ownership of the U.S Treasury Curve

Posted on December 14, 2010 by macromon

Here’s an interesting chart we threw together showing the Fed’s ownership of Treasury securities maturing in each year on the curve.  There are no bonds maturing in 2032-35 due to the temporary discontinuance of the 30-year earlier in the millennium, … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Credit, Economics, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | 9 Comments

Argentina – “Cookie Cutter” for the European Periphery?

Posted on December 13, 2010 by macromon

“I would not say that Mexico is going to be a cookie cutter for others.” – William Rhodes, Citibank 1989 These were the words of the chairman of Mexico’s Bank Advisory Committee in 1989, just after the country and its … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Credit, Euro, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | Leave a comment

The Illustrated History of the U.S. Credit Collapse

Posted on December 10, 2010 by macromon

We constructed these charts with data from today’s release of the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds.  They are both stunning and frightening as they illustrate the cardiac arrest that took place in the credit markets.  The  collapse in credit issuance/borrowing … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Budget Deficit, Charts, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

“A money-financed tax cut is…[a] ‘helicopter drop’ of money”

Posted on December 9, 2010 by macromon

Wow!  Sounds a lot like what the President and Congress just negotiated, no?  Tax cuts financed by QE2 and a possible QE3?  Break out the Apaches! Here is the excerpt from his famous  helicopter speech, given at the National Economist … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget Deficit, Commodities, Gold, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 4 Comments

Global Interest Rate Spike: Young Lady or Old Hag?

Posted on December 8, 2010 by macromon

The epic interest rate spike and U.S. bond sell-off during the past few trading days is generating a fierce market debate.  The bears see it as the beginning of a new phase of the crisis, where sovereign debt woes spread … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Economics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Einhorn: “Global Economy in a Period Between Two Crises”

Posted on December 7, 2010 by macromon

A must view Charlie Rose interview with David Einhorn, President of Greenlight Capital.   He is a very smart guy with an excellent track record. He speaks of the absurd way we calculate official inflation in the U.S. using the Apple … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Budget Deficit, Economics, Sovereign Risk, Video, Whales | Tagged , | Leave a comment

December 7th – A Rate Move Which Will Live In Infamy

Posted on December 7, 2010 by macromon

CNBC puts an interesting spin on the stock market sell-off and reversal in almost all commodities today, blaming the SEC insider trading probe.  We have a different view, believing it was the historic rise in long-term rates. Today’s 23 bps … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Commodities, Credit, Crude Oil, Economics, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Gold, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 3 Comments