Inching Toward A Second Brexit Referendum

Posted on March 18, 2019 by macromon

John Bercow, the Speaker of the House of Commons effectively blocked a third vote of the Prime Minister’s Brexit deal slowly chipping away at the roadblock to a second Brexit referendum.   Theresa May’s Brexit deal must be “fundamentally different” from the last two deals that MPs have voted down in order to be considered by Parliament.

Cable flatish on the day.

 

 

Any doubt about our view?

Every poll for a year has put remain ahead – most by some 8% – and a delay means a better chance of a second vote. The country needs a long extension. To impose anything without a public vote would be the great denial of democracy, the great betrayal.  – Guardian OpEd, March 18th

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Father of Great Gatsby Curve, Alan Krueger, R.I.P.

Posted on March 18, 2019 by macromon

Alan Krueger

We’re shocked at the passing of economist Alan Krueger.   Great economist and great guy.  Way too young to leave us. He will be missed.

GMM sends thoughts and prayers to his family,  Lisa Simon, Benjamin, and Sydney.

Love his Great Gatsby Curve (GGC), which illustrates the relationship between inequality and intergenerational social immobility, which, by the way,  was just confirmed and reinforced by the recent college admissions/bribe scandal.    The GGC could, and should, be a central focus of the 2020 presidential campaign.

Gatsby Curve

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Rory It Is…

Posted on March 17, 2019 by macromon

The Irishman, Rory McIlroy wins the Players Championship at the TPC Sawgrass in Florida on St. Patrick’s Day with a score of 16 under par.  How cool is that?

I think our “Unleash the Leprechauns!” chant and blessing helped him along today. Hope you bet along with us.  See here.

In the final round of THE PLAYERS Championship 2019, Rory McIlroy made some clutch shots down the stretch, carding a 2-under 70 to finish the tournament at 16-under and one stroke clear of the field for his 15th-career PGA TOUR victory.

SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh

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Week In Review – March 15

Posted on March 17, 2019 by macromon

Summary

  • Bond yields mostly lower on the week as global growth expectations ratchet downward and yield chasing back in vogue, led by Brazil
  • Credit spreads tighter led by lower-tier credits
  • Major Latin FX rebounds after a few weeks of weakness
  • Dixie rejected right at 97.70 resistance. Chart traders and/or ‘bot in total control.  We was [sic] wrong but believe dollar moves higher into year-end
  • Pound continues to price soft Brexit or new Refie
  • Smart week for global equities
  • Brazil equities bounce big after their bout of weakness
  • S&P closes at its highest level since the bear market began in late September
  • VIX at the lowest level since October
  • Wheat and corn bounce on short covering due to….of course, what else, trade rumors.  The American farmer has been butchered by the trade wars

Commentary:   The S&P500 finally managed to crack and close above the great big beautiful wall at 2816, its highest close since last October.  The Power of Zero is now driving the risk markets — that is fears that global interest rates are going to zero, some of which are already negative with a line of moving vans backed up ready to move into the less than zero neighborhood.

Oy vey!  Equity markets can’t rise with stronger growth because of too much public debt in the world and it’s sensitivity to higher interest rates.  Markets are now driven by FOMO and yield panic.

Nevetherless, we don’t know where the market is going tomorrow as it is pretty close to a  random 50/50 bet (53/47, in fact, similar to the House odds at the roulette wheel) but as we have stated earlier,  history suggests the S&P500 will end March at or around 2850.  Important the S&P stays above 2820.  Our instincts tell us some profit taking coming early in the week but our instincts are biased by human genes, which have evolved over the past 200,000 years of human existence, of which 95 percent of that time was spent running from wild beasts on the savannah.

Underestimate the Power of Zero, which has firmly taken hold of the markets, at your own peril, at least, until we can see the white of the eyes of a global recession.  The market is now pricing a 10 percent chance of a Fed rate cut by June and an almost  30 percent probability by December.   Nuttin’ else seems to matter, honey!

We are we looking at this week?  Glad you asked:

  1. Potentially, another Brexit vote in Parliament.  The PM may or may not table it depending on if she thinks it can pass.  Rumors are that Tory Brexiteers have told her they will vote yes if she stands down as Prime Minister.
  2. The Fed meets and may lay out their exit plans from their balance sheet reduction.
  3. Bank of England meeting.
  4. President Xi’s visit to Italy.
  5. Brazil’s Bolsonero visit to the White House.
  6. The election in Thailand.  Back to democracy?
  7. FedEx earnings
  8. U.S. factory orders and existing home sales
  9. Japan CPI
  10. Eurozone PMI
  11. Argentina Q4 GDP
  12. Other
  13. P.S. More “trade deal” tweets

Happy hunting out there this week, folks.

 

S&P Breaking Out?

WIR_Mar15_S&P

All Asia Global Economy 

WIR_Mar15_GlobalGrowth

Hat Tip:  @Carol_Kohlberg 

 

 

Week_2019_ETFs

 

Week_Table

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NASA’s Pot of Gold

Posted on March 17, 2019 by macromon

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Happy St. Patrick’s (Maweyn Succat) Day!

Posted on March 17, 2019 by macromon

Another Blast From The Past (BFTP).  Hard to believe this was seven years ago.

Happy St. Patrick’s (Maweyn Succat) Day!

St. Patrick, Ireland, St. Patrick’s Day. Simple, right? The man wasn’t even Irish! He was actually born in Britain around the turn of the 4th century. At 16 years old, Irish raiders captured him in the midst of an attack on his family’s estate. The raiders then took him to Ireland and held him captive for six years. After escaping, he went back to England for religious training and was sent back to Ireland many years later as a missionary. St. Patrick was actually born Maewyn Succat, according to legend; he changed his name to Patricius, or Patrick, which derives from the Latin term for “father figure,” when he became a priest.  – Time

The Irish Comeback

Ireland has come a long way since this post, which was just after the European debt crisis.  The government just placed €1.03 billion of 10-year bonds in mid-February at a stunning yield of 0.85 percent.  The auction had a bid-to-cover of 2.24.

Yeah, got it, distorted due to ECB asset-buying program.  But still well below the Euro periphery bond yields.

Irealand

Though the Irish economy is slowing and there is much uncertainty around Brexit, still it’s been one helluva comeback,  and the Irish are a resilient bunch, now positioning themselves with U.S. and Canadian companies as the “only English-speaking common-law country in the whole of the European Union.”

Me “finks [sic]” part of the success was thumbing their nose and ignoring the advice and dictates of the Eurocrats in Brussels.

Plus, Ireland still has Bono and U2, Andrea and the rest of the Corrs, and the many, if not all the great people of Ireland, we love so much,  including my late grandmother and her side of the family.   That is the upside of being an American.  We are all mutts and can claim to be citizens of many cultures.  Don’t think POUTS has got the memo quite yet.

Rory

How great would be to see an Irishman win the PGA’s coveted Players Championship on St. Paddy’s Day?   Rory tees it up in today’s final round one back.

Getting long Rory as I write.  Pour me one in Dublin and Hollywood, CD in the wee hours tomorrow to celebrate!   You heard it here first.  Unleash the Leprechauns!

Rory

Source:  Golf Digest

 

Happy St. Patrick’s (Maweyn Succat) Day!

Originally Posted on March 17, 2012

In case you’re wondering,  Maweyn Succat was St. Patrick’s real name and he wasn’t even Irish!.   Click here for some great background and history of St. Patrick’s Day.

Go Paddy, Rory, Graeme, and Darren!

Happy St. Patrick’s Day!  Not too many green beers, folks!

By the way, there has been one huge bond rally in Ireland over the past year.

Posted in Bonds, General Interest, Picture of the Day, PIIGS | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Sector ETF Performance – March 15

Posted on March 16, 2019 by macromon

ETF_Day

ETF_Week

ETF_Month

ETF_YTD

 

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Global Risk Monitor – March 15

Posted on March 16, 2019 by macromon

RM_1

RM_2

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QOTD: Turkey/Eagle Flight Convergence During QE

Posted on March 16, 2019 by macromon

QOTD = Quote of the Day

Central banks have inflated the entire market: it has been impossible to pick winners. – FT

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Ten Plus Plus Great Weekend Reads – March 15

Posted on March 15, 2019 by macromon

WIR__Mar15_Earnings

Markets

  • Active investors are depressed, but not depressed enough – FT

Over his long and illustrious career, Mr Buffett has beaten the market handily, but over the past 10 years, the return of Berkshire Hathaway shares is 274 per cent. Which looks impressive until you consider the S&P 500 has returned 273 per cent.  – FT

  • Liquidity is the scary absentee in stocks’ rebound – FT

WIR__Mar15_Liquidity

The Flowless Stock Recovery

WIR__Mar15_Flows

Economics

  • You Never Know When A Recession Will Sneak Up On You – NY Times
  • Manufacturing Pullback Flashes Signs of Economic Slowdown – WSJ

WIR__Mar15_Fading Stim

  • Ballooning US debt piles put investors on guard – FT
  • Tail Risk: Global debt – when is the day of reckoning? – FT
  • Trump’s Twin Deficits Are Exploding – Forbes

WIR__Mar15_Bonds

Companies

  • Superstar companies lose their lustre – FT
  • How Sears Lost the American Shopper – WSJ

EM

Perhaps the most remarkable change since the crises of the 1990s has come in the way emerging-market countries finance their debt. Governments now borrow much more in their own currencies than in foreign ones, making them less vulnerable to runs and currency crises. But risks remain.  – Agustin Carstens, FA

Geopolitics

  • Is America Becoming Trump’s Banana Republic? – New Yorker
  • “If Beto Is The Nominee, Texas Would Be In Play”:  Why Donald Trump Is Obsessed With O’Rourke –  Vanity Fair
  • How Trump’s Brand of Grievance Politics Roiled a Pennsylvania Campaign – NY Times
  • Can the wisdom of the crowd predict a second EU referendum? – LSE
  • Four possible outcomes of the UK’s request for a Brexit delay – FT
  • North Korea threatens to end US talks and restart nuclear tests – FT

Tech

Most Clueless Article Of The Week 

  • The Fed Is a Threat to Growth, Stephen Moore – WSJ

Bonus

  • The Hedge Fund Manager Who Bucked The Trend And Became A Billionaire – Forbes
  • A Rare Find In Silicon Valley: A New Woman Billionaire In Tech – Forbes
  • ‘Billions,’ ‘Succession’ and the Making of Wealth Porn – NY Times
  • Mercury Is in Retrograde. Don’t Be Alarmed – NY Times
  • Resilience: How Women Use Obstacles to Fuel Their Success – WSJ
  • How cities can heal themselves – FT
  • Admissions scandal hits ‘university of spoiled children (USC)’ – FT
  • The Big Data Behind the NBA’s Next Big Thing – WSJ
  • Santa Anita bans race day drugs after another horse dies – LA Times

 

What neuroscience has to do with nationalism, Fareed Zakaria

The is a must view, folks.   Here is the link to the article

WIR__Mar15_Video

Click here to view video

 

 

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