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Recent Posts
Meta
The Best MLK Weekend Of All-Time
In celebration of MLK Weekend, we are reposting a repost of a post in honor of Dr. King, one of our most outstanding Americans, a true patriot, and a modern-day saint.
During my Lehman days as a bond strategist, the firm’s research group would do a January roadshow in many of America’s major cities to present our ideas to institutional investors. One particular year, we were in Atlanta at end of the week and scheduled for another “greatest show on earth” in Chicago the following Tuesday.
A Weekend In The Peachtree Hyatt
Rather than flying home to New York, I decided to stay over in Atlanta and migrate north on Monday evening. It was MLK weekend, and I wanted to attend services at the Ebenezer Baptist Church, where Martin Luther King, Jr. was baptized as a child and gave his first sermon. If my memory is correct, I believe his father also pastored the church. His mother was shot and killed while she played the organ in that church in 1974.
Dr. King’s tomb is located just outside the side door of the church in the middle of a reflecting pool.

Three Memories Of Ebenezer
I recall my three main takeaways from that Sunday morning.
First, I was maybe one of ten whites out of 600-700 people sitting in the pews. Sadly, as Dr. King said almost 60 years ago.
I think it is one of the tragedies of our nation, one of the shameful tragedies, at 11 o’clock on Sunday morning is one of the most segregated hours, if not the most segregated hour in Christian America. – MLK, Jr Meet the Press, April 17, 1960
Nevertheless, I felt incredibly welcome and never — not for one nanosecond — was conscious about such a silly thing as the difference in the color of my skin. During the greeting time, the Ebenezers made me feel so welcome and a part of their family.
Second, not to contradict Dr. King, but I believe the service started at 9:30 AM and went to almost 1:00 PM! Maybe it was an exceptional MLK weekend service. The pastors in the primarily white churches I have attended have trouble keeping the congregation’s attention for more than 20 minutes.
Third, the sermon differed entirely from those I had experienced in middle-class white churches. Less doctrine, though similar theology, and more authentic life experiences. The struggles of raising children in poverty. Grandparents raising their grandchildren. Troubles with children with drug addiction. The struggles of being black in white America, all of the life struggles which are just as ubiquitous in the white and all communities of color. No pretense of sinless and perfect, no holier than thou vibe, judgment, condemnation, guilt, or shaming. All love, compassion, kindness, and forgiveness. Just like the real Jesus.
Also, the sharing of the same joys and blessings. New babies, college graduates, marriages, medical recoveries, and others.
“Daddy King” was referred to several times.
It truly echoed the genius and saintliness of Dr. King.
I walked away convinced the Church for the African-American community was much more — that is a considerable part of their life — than what I had experienced in white evangelical America.
Yes, maybe some of us attend more than just Sunday services, but many, such as yours truly, often do so with the dubious motive of seeking the blessings of personal peace and personal prosperity. The community of the Church, as it is for the African-Americans, though not always, is secondary.
I spent the next day, Martin Luther King Jr Day across the street at the King Center.
More Empathy, Less “Being A Dick“
What great memories from that unforgettable MLK weekend.
I grew up in the middle-class white suburbs of Los Angeles, attending an all-white high school. Fortunately, I had a father who was politically left of the salad fork (out of a rebellion, I became a conservative in college), and also spent my first 25 years playing sports, fighting in the baseball trenches with, pulling for, breaking bread, and downing brewskies with my teammates of color; or as I grew to learn colorless.
I am very thankful for those experiences. It helped me integrate into and see the real greatness of America.
I feel sad for my many brothers and sisters who have not had the same privilege and are stuck still watching black and white television, unable or unwilling to embrace and enjoy the tremendous diversity of this great country.
Ditto for the similar ignoramuses from other races and ethnic groups.

I can’t imagine eating steak and potatoes every day and every night.
Ignorance And Racism Know No Boundaries
Let me finish by qualifying all of the above.
Racism is a prominent feature of so many human societies that some evolutionary psychologists have concluded it is “natural” or “innate.” We don’t know about that but are sure it is not just a “white thing,” a “black thing, or a “brown thing,” etc.
I have shared the story of my brother who was murdered by an undocumented worker, who stated, after stabbing him, “all anglos need to be exterminated.” This sociopathic asshole killed my brother not because he was brown or undocumented but because he was one sick and crazy mother f$@ker.
Now, more than ever, it is time to commit to expanding our menu. Let’s make it a point to understand and enjoy the perspectives and cultures of all the different races and ethnic groups.
Allegorically and literally, let’s eat more balaedas, falafel, babaghanoush, borscht, moussaka, and bouilli, among others. The steak and potatoes will taste sooo much better.
Sorry to end on a note that violates the spirit of Dr. King but I can’t help myself.
Any white man (probably less so for a white woman) who thinks he knows what it is like to be an African-American growing up and living in America, has his head…well…you know where.

Bring it on!
Posted in Politics, Uncategorized
Tagged civil-rights, Ebenezer Baptist Church, History, King Center, life, Martin Luther King, MLK, mlk-day
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Presidential Stock Markets
The performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) under various U.S. presidents has long been a subject of debate, providing political fodder but offering limited actionable insights. The key drivers of market returns are often the initial conditions—such as valuations and economic context—while presidential policies generally can play a supporting role.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
We chose the DJIA as the reference index for this analysis because it is the oldest and longest-running market average, dating back to the start of our study in 1901 during Theodore Roosevelt’s administration. Historical outliers, such as Herbert Hoover’s catastrophic market losses during the Great Depression and Calvin Coolidge’s speculative bubble, distort long-term averages. Since 1901, the Dow’s compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) has been 5.62%, closely tracking nominal GDP growth. However, since the Reagan administration, stock market returns have significantly outpaced historical norms due to structural economic changes and policy shifts. For clarity, refer to the table for returns excluding outliers.
The debate over when to measure presidential market performance—Election Day or Inauguration Day—adds nuance to the narrative, with timing differences often favoring one party over another.
Barack Obama inherited a collapsing market during the 2008 Financial Crisis, with a sharp recovery shortly after he took office. Conversely, George W. Bush encountered the dot-com bubble’s fallout early in his term and left amid the Great Financial Crisis.
Donald Trump entered office with historically high market valuations (117% market cap-to-GDP). Through aggressive tax cuts, deregulation, and unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Dow rose 56.75% during his term, reflecting an 11.89% annualized return.
Inflation Drives Stocks
Joe Biden began his presidency with even more stretched valuations (181% market cap-to-GDP). Despite these conditions, the DJIA gained 40.60% under his leadership, translating to an 8.89% annualized return. Four years ago, we speculated that Biden would require significant inflation to sustain positive market returns—and inflation indeed became a dominant factor.
As Trump enters his second term, he faces a challenging landscape: either market valuations will decline, or inflation will intensify as the primary driver of stock market performance. Notably, Trump’s proposed policies lean heavily toward inflationary outcomes.

Global Risk Monitor: Week In Review – January 17
Weekly Economic and Market Summary
Global markets rallied amid softer U.S. inflation data, with the S&P 500 rising +2.94% for the week, driven by gains in financials and industrials. European markets outperformed, led by France’s CAC 40 (+3.75%), Germany’s DAX (+3.41%), and Italy’s FTSE MIB (+3.36%). The UK’s FTSE 100 climbed +3.11%, benefiting from cooling inflation and expectations of Bank of England rate cuts. In Asia, China’s Shanghai Composite gained +2.31%, supported by robust economic data, while Japan’s NIKKEI fell -1.90%, pressured by yen appreciation and declining export sector margins. Emerging markets delivered mixed results, with Vietnam’s VN Index dropping -1.39%.
Global Economics
The Eurozone saw easing inflation, with December data supporting ECB plans for gradual rate cuts in 2025. Germany’s GDP contracted -0.20% in 2024, marking its second consecutive annual decline, driven by weak investment and slowing exports. The UK’s inflation decelerated to +2.50% in December, down from +2.60% in November, fueling speculation of monetary easing.
In Asia, China’s Q4 GDP exceeded expectations at +5.40% year-over-year, with industrial production growing +6.20% and retail sales expanding +3.70%. Japan faced mixed signals; real wages fell -0.30% year-over-year, while the yen’s appreciation weighed on equities. Elsewhere, Hungary’s inflation rose to +4.60% in December, while Poland’s central bank held rates at 5.75%, citing elevated inflation expectations.
Easy Financial Conditions
The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) indicates the loosest financial conditions since October 2021, when quantitative easing and zero interest rate policies were in full effect. Such easy financial conditions could reignite inflation, especially amid the incoming administration’s trinity of inflationary policies—tariffs, expansionary fiscal policy (mainly tax cuts), and mass deportations. These easing financial conditions act as the dry brush that could magnify and accelerate the inflationary pressures.





Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged Economy, Federal Reserve, finance, Inflation, Interest rates, Investing
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Europe’s North/South Economic Reversal
Great piece in today’s FT on the reversal of fortune in European economies.
The Eurozone is experiencing a significant shift as the southern nations plus —Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain—outperform their northern counterparts, particularly Germany, which faces economic stagnation. This reversal stems from targeted structural reforms, substantial EU investments, and favorable industry dynamics, including a reliance on tourism and green energy.
Southern countries have embraced the €800 billion EU-backed NextGenerationEU program, channeling funds into infrastructure, digital innovation, and green energy while undertaking necessary economic reforms. Tourism and renewable energy sectors have driven economic expansion, with Spain leading through substantial growth in foreign direct investments and renewable energy projects.
Despite the progress, challenges persist. Southern Europe grapples with high public debt, bureaucratic inertia, and workforce shortages. Germany’s industrial decline raises concerns about potential ripple effects, especially for nations reliant on German demand. Meanwhile, socioeconomic disparities linger, with Greece still recovering from its debt crisis and struggling with high poverty rates.
The sustainability of this growth hinges on continuing reforms, balancing structural weaknesses, and mitigating external shocks.


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The Trump Bump Fizzles
The “Trump bump” following the recent election contrasts sharply with 2016. In 2016, Trump’s unexpected victory over Hillary Clinton surprised markets, leading to a significant rally as investors bet on policies like tax cuts and deregulation. This surge reflected the element of surprise and “animal spirits.” However, the 2024 race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris was closely contested, with betting markets favoring a Trump win before Election Day. As a result, markets had largely priced in his victory, muting post-election gains. This context underscores how pre-election expectations can temper market reactions, reducing the dramatic movements seen in 2016. Context, folks.

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