Global Macro Monitor

I was playing around with ChatGPT this morning juxtaposing comp sales from Walmart and Target.  I noticed Chat gave me a 4.6 percent y-o-y growth rate for Walmart, which was not what the company reported.  I asked ChatGPT where the number came from and it responded with the following.  Beware of hallucinations, folks!

Q:  How did you come up with the 4.6 percent comparable sales growth for Walmart?

A:  The 4.6% figure I mentioned earlier appears to have been a misstatement. Upon clarification, Walmart’s actual U.S. comparable sales growth for Q3 FY2025 was reported as 5.3% (excluding fuel), based on the latest available data from Walmart’s earnings release.

Thank you for pointing this out! Walmart’s strong performance was indeed slightly higher, demonstrating robust growth across key categories like grocery and health and wellness, supported by a focus on value offerings.

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Financial conditions in the United States, as measured by the Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI), have reached their most accommodative levels since November 2021—a period when the Federal Reserve’s policy rate stood at zero and quantitative easing was at its peak (refer to the commodities table). This shift coincides with notable market movements: gold and Bitcoin surged this week, and expectations for future rate cuts are gradually being priced out.

Of particular interest, Tesla posted a 10% rally (see Equity ETF & Magnificent 7 table), fueling what some might characterize as a “Crony Capitalism” trade. These developments underscore the dynamic interplay between easing financial conditions and market sentiment. Further shifts are anticipated—stay tuned for additional analysis.

A key gauge of euro-zone wages jumped by the most since the common currency was introduced in 1999 — complicating the European Central Bank’s plans for interest-rate cuts as inflation eases.

Third-quarter negotiated pay rose 5.4% from a year ago, the ECB said Wednesday. That’s up from 3.5% in the previous three months and was largely driven by Germany. – Bloomberg

MICHAEL BECKLEY is Associate Professor of Political Science at Tufts University, Director of the Asia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, and Nonresident Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. He is the author of Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World’s Sole Superpowerand a co-author, with Hal Brands, of Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China. – Foreign Affairs