-
In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.
-
Join 1,204 other subscribers
Contribute To GMM
Categories
- 3D Printing
- Agriculture
- AI
- Algos
- Apple
- Automation
- Banking
- BFTP
- Bitcoin
- Black Swan Watch
- Bonds
- Brazil
- Brexit
- BRICs
- Budget Deficit
- Capital Flows
- Cartoon of the Day
- Cashless Society
- Chart of the Day
- Charts
- China
- Clean Tech
- Climate Change
- Coach C
- Commodities
- Coronavirus
- COVID
- Credit
- Crude Oil
- Currency
- Cyprus
- Daily Risk Monitor
- Day In History
- Debt
- Demographics
- Disinflaton
- Dollar
- Earnings
- ECB
- Economics
- Economist
- Egypt
- Electric Vehicles
- Emerging Markets
- Employment
- Energy
- Environment
- Equities
- Equity
- Euro
- Eurozone Sovereign Spreads
- Exchange Rates
- Fed
- Finance and the Good Society
- FinTech
- Fiscal Cliff Monitor
- Fiscal Policy
- Food Prices
- France
- Futurist
- Game Theory
- General Interest
- Geopolitical
- Geopolitics
- German Bund
- Germany
- Global Macro Watch
- Global Reset
- Global Risk Monitor
- Global Stock Performance
- Global Trend Indicators
- Gold
- Greece
- Healthcare
- Heat Map
- Hedge Funds
- Housing
- Human Interest
- Immigration
- Impeachment
- India
- Inequality
- Inflation/Deflation
- Infographics
- Innovation
- Institutional Investors
- Interest Rate Monitor
- Interest Rates
- Interviews
- Italian Yields
- Italy
- Japan
- Jobs
- Lectures
- Macro Notes from Conference Calls
- Manufacturing
- Masters
- Mexico
- Monetary Policy
- Movies
- Muni Bonds
- Muni Market
- Natural Gas
- News
- Nonlinear Thinking
- North Korea
- Overbought Markets
- Picture of the Day
- PIIGS
- PMIs
- Policy
- Politics
- Population
- Populism
- Poverty
- President Trump
- Qunat Strategies
- Quote of the Day
- Quotes
- Rare Earth Elements
- Readership
- Reads
- Real Estate
- Relative Strength Index
- Robert Shiller
- RSIs
- S&P500
- Sector ETF Peformance
- Semiconductor prices
- Semiconductors
- Social Media
- Socialism
- Song for the Week
- Sovereign Debt
- Sovereign Risk
- Spain
- Sports
- State and Local Government
- Tail Risk
- Technical Analysis
- Technology
- The Big Reset
- The Weekend Read
- This Day In Financial History
- Trade War
- Trades
- Tweet of the Day
- Ugly Chart Contest
- Uncategorized
- US Releases
- Video
- Volatility
- Wages
- Week Ahead
- Week in Review
- Weekend Reads
- Weekly Eurozone Watch
- Whales
-
Recent Posts
Meta
Global Risk Monitor: Week In Review – November 1
Bearish Bonds
- Jobs Report Impact: October’s weaker jobs report initially pushed yields down, hinting at possible accelerated Fed rate cuts, before a quick rebound.
- Political Influence: Anticipated election outcomes, including potential stimulus under a new administration, could reintroduce inflationary pressures, potentially raising yields.
- Fed Rate Expectations: Markets expect quarter-point Fed rate cuts in November and December, with a potential pause by early next year.
- Treasury Auctions: Large-scale auctions for three-year, 10-year, and 30-year notes next week may pressure yields further amid heightened volatility.
- Market Volatility: Bond market volatility is at its highest this year, with hedging activity spiking due to election and Fed-related uncertainties.





Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged Economy, Federal Reserve, finance, Inflation, Investing
Leave a comment
OQOTD: Tail Risk Delusion
OQOTD: Ominous Quote of the Day
By making Mr Trump leader of the free world, Americans would be gambling with the economy, the rule of law and international peace. We cannot quantify the chance that something will go badly wrong: nobody can. But we believe voters who minimise it are deluding themselves. – The Economist

Posted in Uncategorized
1 Comment
Bond Market Fundamentals: Rising Risks
- QT Scale: G10 central banks reduced balance sheets from $28 trillion to $21.5 trillion since March 2022.
- Interconnected Risks: Simultaneous QT across central banks could spread funding stress across markets.
- Bond Market Volatility: Shifting bond ownership to price-sensitive investors could increase volatility.
- U.S. Treasury Impact: Increased free float Treasury securities could drive yields and volatility up.
- Short-Term Debt Strategy: Treasury’s short-term debt issuance lowers current costs but risks future financing hikes.
- Dealer Inventory Risks: Large dealer inventories may hinder sell-off absorption, heightening volatility in downturns.

Lost In Aggregation: American Middle Class
While U.S. macroeconomic indicators—such as GDP growth, corporate profits, and stock market performance—signal prosperity, these metrics often obscure the reality facing the middle class. Aggregate data masks wage stagnation, rising cost-of-living pressures, and increasing debt burdens that are disproportionately felt by middle-income households. This discrepancy is significant, as middle-class financial strain limits consumer spending growth—a key economic driver. Data aggregation can dilute such nuances, so a closer examination of income distribution, real wage growth, and regional economic variations may reveal potential vulnerabilities in sectors heavily reliant on middle-class spending stability and resilience.
Posted in Uncategorized
Leave a comment
Japan Political Earthquake: LDP Tanks

Key Facts
- The LDP coalition lost its majority, holding only 214 of the 233 required seats.
- Voter dissatisfaction stems from years of stagnant wages and rising costs.
- The loss is the LDP’s worst electoral result since 2009.
- Ishiba, newly appointed, is under pressure to resign and could become Japan’s shortest-serving leader.
- Market analysts expect heightened volatility due to the political uncertainty.
- The CDPJ gained seats, focusing on the LDP’s recent slush-fund scandal.
- Turnout was low (53.8%), with young voters increasingly disillusioned by mainstream politics.
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) faced a significant setback in today’s snap election, losing its parliamentary majority for the first time in 15 years. Far worse than anticipated, this outcome has thrust the country into political turmoil. The election, called by new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba amid a slush-fund scandal, was an attempt to secure public support but resulted in voter backlash over stagnant wages and rising living costs. As a result, the LDP will struggle to govern, facing possible policy gridlock and pressure for Ishiba’s resignation. Economic analysts caution that this upheaval could lead to market volatility and complicate Japan’s reform agenda. The main opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), capitalized on public discontent, securing significant gains.
The Fall Classic: Mr. October And Me
We are reposting a piece as the Fall Classic begins tonight.
Mr. October And Me
Ahh, the Fall Classic!
We’re not talking about October stock market corrections but the World Series! The Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers square off tonight to begin the 114th October Classic.

The last time the two teams met was in 1916 when the Dodgers were test driving a new nickname, the “Robins.” The Red Sox beat Brooklyn four games to one. Casey Stengel starred for the Robins, and Babe Ruth pitched thirteen shutout innings after giving up a run in the first inning to win the fourteen-inning game two. The winning players share (World Series bonus) was $3,910 ($87,500 in 2018 dollars) versus the last year’s Astros’ player share of $438,901.
Mr. October
No baseball player is more synonymous with the World Series than Mr. October himself, Reggie Jackson.

Jackson earned the nickname “Mr. October” with his performance in Game 6 of the 1977 World Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Down 3-2 in the fourth inning, the Yankees outfielder hit a two-run home run and did the exact same thing in the fifth inning. Then in the eighth, he hit another home run to put the Yankees up 8-3. His performance secured the win and the series for New York.
– Athlon Sports
Reggie and Me
I have truly lived a Walter Mitty life.
The first twenty-five years of my life was baseball, 24/7, an obsession that almost compares to today’s techno-addicted youth.
My baseball career ended due to an injury, but also mainly the lack of emotional maturity and the ability to pull out of an ugly hitting slump. Nothing worse for your confidence than cruising along during the season hitting .350, then to fall into a 2-for-50 tailspin. Then comes the vicious circle thinking you will never get another hit. Ironically, baseball players can fail 70 percent of the time, and still hit .300, making it to the Hall of Fame.
It’s very similar to what happens to your psyche and P&L, trying to trade crude oil and natural gas against the ‘bots. You gotta shake off the bad ones and move on. I could’ve been somebody, damn it!
I did have a headstart in baseball as a young teen working with the Los Angeles Dodgers, first as a batboy, then batting practice pitcher, and adjunct bullpen catcher. Later, I would spend some time with the Atlanta Braves and Oakland A’s.
I caught Tommy John (TJ) — the real one, who had the surgery named for him – for almost the entire season he was out before his remarkable comeback. He could barely extend his hand after the surgery but refused to give up. I would try to hide in the outfield before games but would soon hear Red Adams, the Dodgers pitching coach, calling me to come to the bullpen.
TJ was very wild when he first started on the comeback trail, bouncing curveballs in the dirt, which too often ended up smacking me in the family jewels. It was a painful year, and it’s amazing that I could still have children. Tommy John is one of the greatest human beings ever.
Reggie
One winter or spring during the off-season, can’t recall, I get a call from my boss to come to Dodger Stadium for a few days as Reggie Jackson was going to film a television commercial. He said the production company might need a pitcher or catcher and I should be around to help Reggie around the clubhouse and stadium.
I wasn’t in the union so being in the commercial was out.
Over the next three days, Reggie and I became very close. He treated me like I was his little brother. Reggie had this larger than life image, with a reputation for a larger than life ego.
…it all flows from me. I’m the straw that stirs the drink – Reggie Jackson, Sports Illustrated, May 1977
He took a lot of heat for that quote, and still denies it, and I certainly didn’t see the Reggie ego the media often portrayed. He was super kind, friendly, down to earth, always made time for you, and was just a great guy to hang out with. He made you feel comfortable and not conscious you were in the presence of one of baseball’s greatest stars. It was very much like a good day hanging with your big brother.
Self-centered egomaniacs don’t treat the little people like that.
One thing that really stood out over our three days together was how Reggie spoke. He sounded like an university professor, very intelligent, Later I found out he has an IQ of 160, the same as Steven Hawking! That is genius zip code.
Pumas
What really sealed the deal was when Reggie finished filming and was about to leave. He handed me a piece of paper with an address and phone number:
22 Yankee Hill
Oakland, Ca
(415) xxx-xxxx
He said when I was in the Bay Area; I would never stay in a hotel but with him. I believe that house burnt down in the 1991 Oakland Hills fire.
He then asked for my shoe size and address. We shook hands and parted ways.
About a week later five boxes of Puma tennis shoes came in the mail. Thank you, Reggie!
Baltimore Orioles
The next season, the A’s traded Reggie to the Baltimore Orioles as a rental. He was playing out his option and Charles Finley, the A’s owner, would never pay Reggie’s new market rate.

My little brother idolized Reggie, so when the O’s were in town, I took him to a game. After the game, I went down to the dugout to say hi as Reggie trotted in from the outfield. He invited me into the clubhouse. I asked Reg if my little brother could accompany me. He said absolutely.
I had told Reggie about my brother, and when we get into the clubhouse, he points to his locker and says, “Geoff, anything, take anything you want. My uniform, glove, anything.” Big egos and the self-absorbed don’t treat little people like this.
I love Reggie Jackson.
Pete Rose
Pete Rose was the same way, by the way. Always thinking and caring about the little guy.
The commish of baseball, Bart Giamatti, my favorite actor’s father, died just eight days after banishing Charlie Hustle from baseball. Just sayin’.
Let’s play ball. Dodgers in six.
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged baseball, los-angeles-dodgers, mlb, oakland-athletics, Sports
Leave a comment
QOTD: Cheddar
QOTD = Quote of the Day
Ms. Harris is processing Cheddar like a Wisconsin cheese factory. – James Carville
Posted in Uncategorized
Leave a comment





