Global Macro Monitor

Key Facts:

• Retail Sales Growth: Retail sales increased 0.4% in September, exceeding expectations of 0.3%.
• Key Sectors: Clothing sales rose 1.5%, while restaurant and bar sales grew 1.0%.
• GDP Outlook: The Atlanta Fed raised its Q3 GDP growth estimate to 3.4%, up from 3.2%.
• Gasoline Prices: A 12-cent drop in gasoline prices provided consumers with more disposable income.
• Federal Reserve: The Fed is expected to implement a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in November and December.
• Consumer Sentiment: Election-related uncertainty is impacting consumer spending patterns.
• Spending Trends: While consumers spent more on essentials, big-ticket items like electronics and appliances saw declines.

The Census Bureau reported today that U.S. retail sales rose by 0.4% in September, reflecting consumer spending on a wide range of goods and services. Lower gasoline prices freed up more disposable income, leading to increased spending at restaurants, bars, clothing stores, and online retailers. The uptick in retail sales suggests continued strong economic growth, prompting economists to predict a smaller interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in the coming months. However, concerns remain over inflation, election-related uncertainty, and signs of cautious consumer behavior in some sectors.

Here are a couple of headlines from today.   You decide. 

Weekly Summary
Equities are higher, interest rates are higher, expected Fed funds are higher, credit spreads are in, and the dollar is stronger;  ergo market expectations of a stronger economy. 

COTD = Chart of the Day

This season, teams are making more field goals per game than ever— even as they’re also hitting them from more far-flung distances. Some 29% of this year’s attempts have been from 50-plus yards, far and away the most in NFL history. At the same time, 76% of those long-distance kicks have gone in, which is easily the highest percentage ever. 

Somehow kickers are becoming more accurate and more powerful at the same time. Last week alone, there were 15 tries from at least 50 yards—and 12 of them went in. – WSJ

Humans love patterns. Sometimes that’s helpful, but other times… Not so much. Apophenia is the common tendency to detect patterns that do not exist. Also known as “patternicity”, apophenia occurs when we try to make predictions, or seek answers, based on unrelated events. – nesslabs.com