Global Risk Monitor – February 3

Posted on February 5, 2017 by macromon

Click on table to enlarge and for better resolution

risk_mon1risk_mon2risk_mon3

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Tom Brady: The Greatest of All-Time

Posted on February 5, 2017 by macromon

“When my information changes, I alter my conclusions.”  – John Maynard Keynes

brady_feb5

 

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Arbitrageurs Already Exploiting Super Bowl Prop Bets

Posted on February 3, 2017 by macromon

So, I get a text from my friend,  Ray N., in San Diego regarding our last post,  Ten Strange Super Bowl Prop Bets.

The first bet reads:

The odds are 19 to one that some fan will troll Brady by tossing a deflated football to remind him of that debacle

deflate_jan3

Ray’s text:

“I’ll take 19 to 1 for $1,000, pay some fan $9,000 to throw the ball out there and pocket $10,000.” – Ray N.

Wow!   Who is the dumbass making that book?

I would top Ray by going to game as ticket prices are plummeting and throwing the ball myself.  Probably cost me $5,000 tops.  Maybe another $500 to get out of jail.

Would this be an arbitrage or considered a fix if Ray follows through?   Sometimes it is hard to tell the difference in certain markets.

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Ten Strange Super Bowl Prop Bets

Posted on February 3, 2017 by macromon

The following is a list combined from the Inquistr and CBS Sports:

  • The odds are 19 to one that some fan will troll Brady by tossing a deflated football to remind him of that debacle
  • The odds for the term “Deflategate” not being mentioned during the entire game by Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, or the sideline reporters are 8 to 1
  • The Atlanta Falcon’s coach is bald, so odds are 50 to one that he will wear a hair piece to the 2017 Super Bowl
  • Odds that he [Belichick] will wear a blue hoodie are at four to 11, Gray three to one, Red, 40 to one and Field 50 to one
  • The odds are over/under 1.5 on how many times the three words “President Donald Trump” are said during the broadcast of the Super Bowl
  • Lady Gaga saying the word “Trump” at any time during the halftime show for the Super Bowl are at nine to five
  • The odds are 10 to 13 that Lady Gaga will make a political anti-Trump statement during her performance
  • The odds of the singer suffering a wardrobe malfunction where an “intimate” part of her body gets exposed is at 15 to one
  • Who will the Super Bowl MVP mention first?
    God 2/1
    Team/teammates 2/1
    Coach 9/1
    Family 9/1
    Owner 9/1
    Donald Trump 20/1
    Does not mention anyone above 5/2
  • What color will the liquid be that is poured on the winning coach?
    Clear 3/1
    Lime/green 3/1
    Orange 3/1
    Yellow 3/1
    Red 6/1
    Blue 15/2
    Purple 12/1
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Tweet of the Day: Wall Street Kicking Main Street’s Arse

Posted on February 3, 2017 by macromon

About that election to “drain the swamp”….

dow_feb3Hat tip to King David!

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Why We Like The Atlanta Falcons

Posted on February 3, 2017 by macromon

True confession.  We love Tom Brady.   Second best QB of all-time,  just after Joe Cool, who, in four Super Bowl games,  started and won, threw for 83 of 122 passes for 1,142 yards and 11 touchdowns with no interceptions!   Won 3 Super Bowl MVPs. 

Talking to a  high school coach of Brady the other day, we asked, “Did any of you guys know that Tom B. would become one of, if not, the greatest of all-time”?    “Absolutely not” the coach answered,  “he was good in high school, not great.  When he got to Michigan, we thought maybe he could play in the NFL.  Nobody around here had any idea he would step-up like he has”.

Tom Brady used to have a girlfriend in high school that lived in our ‘hood and would come around here at prom time.   That is our bragging rights to the great one.   Joe Cool used to live in our town.

Until a few weeks ago, we were looking forward to Brady and the Pats winning their fifth Super Bowl ring.

That was until we heard Falcons owner, Arther Blank co-founder of Home Depot, is taking the entire Falcons staff to the Super Bowl.

Via Michael Cunningham of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Falcons owner Arthur Blank is sending all of the team’s employees to Houston next week for Super Bowl LI.

“Football is the ultimate team sport and it goes way beyond the people you see on the field,” Falcons president Rich McKay said in a statement. “It takes a lot of people to operate a successful NFL team and the staff works very, very hard all year round. Arthur loves the associates and one of our core values is ‘Include Everyone.’ He wants those who have helped our team reach the Super Bowl to have the chance to see the game live in Houston.”

It’s not an unheard of move, as both Broncos owner Pat Bowlen and Panthers owner Jerry Richardson did the same last year.

But it’s still a nice perk for the 500 employees of the team, who get to ride along for an unexpected end-of-year bonus. – NBC Sports

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Arthur Blank_Feb3.png

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Class!   Way to go, Arthur.  People like you make America great.

Falcons by 4.   Don’t day trade it!

 

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Enjoying the Hot Tub, Kermit?

Posted on February 3, 2017 by macromon

You know, the old amphibian metaphor — intended to show that humans are sometimes unable to react well to gradual threats — about how a frog placed in boiling water will jump out, but a frog placed in cold water that is slowly heated will stay put and boil to death.- NY Times, 11/18/15

frogs-in-jacuzz2i_feb3

***************************      Kermit the Frog   *****************************

wef_global-temps_feb3

Source:  World Economic Forum

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QOTD: Vive La France!

Posted on February 3, 2017 by macromon

Maybe, just maybe, France will turn out to be the place where the populist tide is turned. – Philip Stephen, FT

We concur!

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Why Billionaire Investor Ray Dalio Did an About-Face on Trump – Bloomberg

Posted on February 2, 2017 by macromon
Feb.01 — Billionaire Ray Dalio, who in November was bullish on the incoming president’s ability to stimulate the economy, is now saying he’s more concerned that the damaging effects of Trump’s populist policies may overwhelm the benefits of his pro-business agenda. Bloomberg’s Simone Foxman reports on “Bloomberg Markets.”
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Recall we warned of the “Bad Trump” policies lurking in our post,“Good Trump” Catapults Dow To 20K As “Bad Trump” Lurks.
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But keep in mind there are some very nasty policy proposals lurking out there and, if realized,  will cause a world of hurt for the global markets and economy.
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The prospects of the “Good Trump” policies,  tax cuts, deregulation, etc., should keep markets afloat and jam them higher when implemented unless a geopolitical shock arises out of the blue or as the result of the “Bad Trump” policies.
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 At the end of the day, however, we believe the imbalances – more debt, fiscal deficits, higher inflation, ballooning trade and current account deficits, border taxes and reduced trade, and a panicked Fed –  will cause, in totality, President Trump’s economic policies to end in tears.
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 President Obama, his economic team, and Ben Bernake and the Fed,  get an A+ in our book for stabilizing a global economy on the brink of an economic disaster 10x the Great Depression when they took over.  At best they get a C for the structural adjustment that was needed to create high paying jobs and prepare the U.S. for the new economy of the 21st century.   Much of that failure was political constraints from the “do nothing” Congress.
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We see some rays of hope in the Trump policies but they fail in their central focus to prepare the workforce for the coming automation that will destroy up to 50 percent of all current jobs.   Infrastructure spending, a one-time shot, will not, tax cuts will not, and deregulation will not — in fact, will accelerate automation.   Trump’s policies are mostly cyclical in nature and won’t fix the economy’s structural problems.
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We have been warning of this since 2011.   See here, here, and here.
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“Tech companies are creating plenty of jobs for robots.”
— Daniel Honan,  The Robot Hiring Boom Has Arrived – Global Macro Monitor, 12/28/2011

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Teaching Python in the second grade would be a good start.
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Apple’s Revenue Breakdown

Posted on February 1, 2017 by macromon

Apple’s stock was up over 6 percent today.  Here is the breakdown by region and product.  Note, the continued decline in China and the 18 percent increase in services, which the market is all lathered up about.

apple-earnings

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