Published on Feb 1, 2017
He was the front-runner in the race to become France’s next president. But have allegations that François Fillon misused public funds created an opening for far-right leader Marine Le Pen and centrist Emmanuel Macron? WSJ’s Niki Blasina reports.
Published on Jan 31, 2017
Jan.31 — CAA Premium Experience Executive Robert Tuchman discusses demand for tickets for the Super Bowl and package deals for the big game in Houston. He speaks with Scarlet Fu on “Bloomberg Markets.”
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Published on Jan 30, 2017The Socialists
The winner of the French socialist primary, Benoit Hamon, much to current Prime Minister Emmanuel Vall’s disappointment, will be the party’s presidential candidate. The main candidates have now been chosen for the two-round elections on 23rd April and 7th May.
But still lots of room for growth:
The spread on the French 10-year and German 10-year widened almost 10 bps this week and is now approaching 2014 highs. François Fillon prospects in the betting markets dropped like a stone in the past week over the scandal his wife having a “fake job” and on the government payroll and new “corruption” charges are beginning to surface.
The nominee for the centre-Right party, Les Républicains, was tipped to win the French presidential election after winning primaries in November – most likely by winning a second round battle against far-Right rival Marine Le Pen.
But his campaign hit huge turbulence last week over a report in Le Canard Enchainé, the satirical weekly, that his Welsh-born wife had been paid €500,000 (£426,000) as parliamentary assistant to her husband and his replacement, when she had previously made it clear she steered clear of his political life. – Telegraph
The nomination of the hard left Socialist, Benoit Hamon, as their candidate for president bolstered Emmanuel Macron chances.
By choosing the 49-year-old traditional leftist Hamon over Valls, they give Macron a big group of middle-ground voters to aim at and a better chance of beating his close rivals on the right and far-right. – Reuters
We still think it will be Fillon and LePenn in the first round on April 23rd and Fillon takes the presidency on May 7th. But the election is now turning into a horse race between Macron, Fillon, and Le Pen. Could be wrong, but one thing is for certain, volatility will pick up in the next few months. Macron has now become a hedge against a Le Pen victory.
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Global Macro Monitor 