Global Macro Monitor

The Dam Is Breaking

Probably only a matter of days if not hours before Biden stands down.  Those worried about a messy convention should study the 1860 Republican Convention – in Chicago, by the way – and how Honest Abe wrestled the nomination from Sen. William Seward of New York.

Originally posted March 15, 2024

Lincoln & His Fake Convention Tickets

The monumental impact of the results of the upcoming election on the country and the world has often been compared to that of the election of 1860, which brought President Lincoln to the White House.  And if you agree “politics ain’t beanbag,”  imagine today the uproar if a candidate snagged their party’s nomination the way President Lincon did from William Seward, who later became his Secretary of State, part of the Team of Rivals.

Lincoln’s Nomination

Finally, the third day [of the convention] arrived. One thousand Seward men marched behind a smartly uniformed brass band. They wound their way noisily through Chicago’s streets, playing the song “Oh, Isn’t He a Darling?” and finally arrived triumphantly in front of the Wigwam. To their horror, they found that they could not get in: the Lincoln men, admitted with their counterfeit tickets, had taken their seats. – Great American History

The 1860 Republican National Convention, held in Chicago, is notable for Abraham Lincoln’s unexpected nomination as the Republican candidate for President, a feat achieved through shrewd political maneuvers, most notably the strategic use of counterfeit tickets by his delegation. Here’s a revised account emphasizing this aspect:

• Chicago’s selection as the convention location set the stage for a significant political showdown, with Senator William Seward of New York as the expected nominee.
• Lincoln, a lesser-known figure at the time, capitalized on his political acumen and local support to challenge the frontrunner.
• Central to Lincoln’s strategy was the ingenious production and distribution of counterfeit tickets by his team.
• These counterfeit tickets were used to flood the convention hall with Lincoln supporters, effectively marginalizing Seward’s delegates.
• Seward’s camp, led by Thurlow Weed, was initially confident but failed to anticipate Lincoln’s tactical planning and grassroots support.
• The convention dynamics were heavily influenced by Lincoln’s ability to control the audience composition, thanks to the counterfeit tickets.
• Despite Seward leading after the first ballot, Lincoln’s growing momentum was palpable, aided by his supporters’ overwhelming presence.
• The shift in delegate support on subsequent ballots, particularly from Pennsylvania, was a turning point, facilitated by the charged atmosphere favoring Lincoln.
• Lincoln’s nomination was secured after three ballots, marked by the strategic use of counterfeit tickets which played a crucial role in his victory.

This pivotal moment underscored Lincoln’s resourcefulness and political insight, setting him on the path to the presidency.

We leave you with the words of Chairman Mao,

Global equity markets exhibited mixed performances this week. European indices showed slight declines, while several Asian markets experienced gains. The S&P500 and Nasdaq were relatively flat, with the Russell 2000 putting in a rare outperformance. Emerging markets showed diverse results, with two-percent moves in Vietnam and India.

Fixed-income markets showed varied movements this week, with yields mostly higher. The U.S. 10-year yield rose 14.5 bps matching Italy’s 14.2 increase.  Mexico’s 10-year yield was 13.6 bps lower on the week

The global currency markets experienced diverse movements, with the U.S. Dollar Index remaining relatively stable. The Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso lost 2.96% and 1.08%, respectively, against the dollar. Cryptocurrencies fell on the week.

Commodity markets also put in a mixed performance for the week. Notable gains were observed in palladium and zinc. Conversely, the S&P Industrial Metals Index and copper prices declined, while gold was flat. Agricultural commodities saw significant price drops.

As we prepare for tonight’s debate, let’s take a closer look at the economic scorecard. President Biden has overseen a stronger economy compared to former President Trump, but his tenure has also been marked by significantly higher inflation. Biden inherited a budget deficit of approximately 15% of GDP and increased stimulus spending, which was supported by the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies. This combination has contributed to the current inflation, for which Biden is accountable.

In contrast, Trump’s presidency was significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting economic shutdowns, leading to the largest quarterly GDP drop on record. Additionally, for the first time in history, core CPI inflation saw three consecutive months of negative readings.

While the data is skewed by the pandemic, the sitting president, for good or for bad owns the economic conditions during their tenure. Think Jimmy Carter, who was faced with the OPEC II oil crisis and the Iran hostage situation, both largely outside his administration’s control yet it cost him his reelection.