Global Macro Monitor

President Biden’s odds at PredictIt.org of being re-elected in November cratered after the release of last week’s special counsel’s classified documents report.  He was cleared, but the following language in the report inflicted a major political flesh wound, 

“at trial, Mr Biden would likely present himself to a jury, as he did during our interview of him, as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory“. – Special Counsel’s Office

We added a Fed tracker at the bottom of the yields page, which measures the change in the expected Fed Funds rate at each upcoming FOMC meeting throughout the rest of the year.  The rate is a weighted average of market probabilities.  Note the significant market revisions this past week in the later months, such as an increase of 63 bps for the December meeting.  Is Mr. Market listening?  

Prior probability, in Bayesian statistics, is the probability of an event before new data is collected. This is the best rational assessment of the probability of an outcome based on the current knowledge before an experiment is performed. Prior probability can be compared with posterior probability. – Investopedia

This week’s cover of the Economist confirms our priors that immigration will determine the November election, which we posted last week, ” This Will Determine The November Election. ” The Iowa and New Hampshire exit polls reinforced this prediction.

According to exit polls, the No. 1 issue for voters in Iowa and in New Hampshire was immigration. – Spectrum News

Though much of the immigration issue is, in effect, a refugee crisis, you haven’t seen nothin’ yet as climate change begins to accelerate and gain it’s mojo. We suspect we will even see it within the U.S. border.

I know firsthand, for I am a climate refugee.  

Donald Trump’s mother came from Tong (population 500), a remote Scottish settlement that was once in Viking territory. His grandfather came from Kallstadt (population 1,200), a Bavarian village that produced the Heinz family. Joe Biden’s ancestors came from Ireland and England. In America, everyone is from somewhere else—even Native Americans, though they have been there much longer than anyone. Such is the country’s appeal that 160m adults around the world say they would move there, too, if only they had the chance. That is many millions more than most Americans are willing to allow in.

This mismatch is at the heart of the issue that could cost President Biden the election. In 2016 Mr Trump rode “border chaos” all the way to the Republican nomination and then on to the presidency. At the time, he campaigned as if record numbers of migrants were coming across the border illegally. That was not true then, but it is now.  –Economist