The Eurozone Fix-It Menu

Posted on June 23, 2012 by macromon

Great little “cheat sheet” from SocGen via FT Alphaville of what the EU can do to resolve its debt and banking crisis.  But remember before getting all lathered up,  “it’s the politics, [stupid]!”

(click here if table is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Germany, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

RT CrossTalk: Euro-Lehmans

Posted on June 22, 2012 by macromon

19 emergency meetings since the beginning of the crisis… What’s next for the eurozone? Will there be enough money to bail out Italy and Spain? How will the recent Greek elections echo in Brussels? CrossTalking with Augusto Lopez-Claros, Tom Conroy and Cevdet Akcay at the SPIEF [St. Petersburg International Economic Forum]

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Posted in Black Swan Watch, Economics, Euro, Germany, PIIGS, Politics, Video | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

‘Toon of the Day: Euro 2012

Posted on June 22, 2012 by macromon

Could it encapsulate the Euorzone crisis any better?

Hat tip Walter “The Grinder” Norosky from Poland.

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Posted in Cartoon of the Day, Germany, PIIGS | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Weekly Eurozone Watch: Spreads Tighter

Posted on June 22, 2012 by macromon

Key Data Points
German 10-year Bund yield 14.4 bps higher;
France 12.7 bps tighter;
Italy 27.1 bps tighter;
Spain 63.8 bps tighter;
Portugal 117 bps tighter,  closes below 10% at 52 week low;
Ireland 40 bps tighter;
Italian and Spanish bank stocks up 2-4 percent;
Euro FX down 0.48 percent;

Commentary
Post Greek election and rumors of German softening on sovereign bond buying send shorts scrambling.  Portugal closes below 10 percent for the first time in over a year.  Markets seem to be sniffing a bazooka and/or big policy shift.

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Nonlinear Thinking: Making the Invisible Visible in Video

Posted on June 21, 2012 by macromon

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Stratfor: Effectiveness of Austerity in Europe (Portfolio)

Posted on June 21, 2012 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Germany, PIIGS | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

German Flash PMI At Three-Year Low

Posted on June 21, 2012 by macromon

Markit reports on another of the hammers that hit the markets today,

Commenting on the Markit Flash Germany PMI® survey data, Tim Moore, Senior Economist at Markit said:
“Germany’s private sector economy slipped deeper into contraction territory at the midway point of the year, with output falling at the fastest pace since June 2009. German manufacturers were at the forefront of the downturn, as a worsening global economic backdrop and the ongoing euro crisis weighed heavily on export demand. Anxiety created by the run-up to the Greek election appears to have severely dented business sentiment, with the monthly drop in service sector confidence the greatest in 15 years of survey collection. While an impending ‘Drachmageddon’ scenario has been avoided, there nonetheless seems a deepening consensus among German businesses that the euro area turbulence has already damaged their growth prospects for the latter half of 2012.”

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Eurozone Contraction Continues

Posted on June 21, 2012 by macromon

Markit reports,

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said:
“The flash PMI for June rounded off the weakest quarter for three years, indicating Eurozone GDP is likely to have fallen by 0.6%. The downturn is gathering pace and spreading across the region, with Germany on course for a marginal fall in GDP in the second quarter, though far steeper declines are likely elsewhere – including a 0.6% drop in France.

“Of particular concern is the near-record deterioration in business optimism, combined with marked falls in employment and purchasing by companies. This suggests that firms are preparing for conditions to worsen in the coming months, with the darker outlook often attributed to uncertainty caused by the region’s ongoing economic and political crises.

“Weak demand has resulted in lower price pressures, especially in manufacturing. This bodes well for consumer inflation, which is likely to fall further from its current rate of 2.4%, perhaps allowing policymakers some extra leeway to stimulate growth and help revive business confidence.”

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HSBC Flash China PMI At 7-Month Low

Posted on June 21, 2012 by macromon

Here’s the first piece of today’s data dump from Markit that hammered the markets and Mr. Risk.

Commenting on the Flash China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said:
“China’s manufacturing sector continued to slow in June, though the pace of slowdown seems to be slowing. With external headwinds remaining strong, exports are likely to decelerate in the coming months. The sharp fall of prices and moderation of new orders suggest weak domestic demand, posing destocking pressures for Chinese manufacturers. All will likely weigh on the jobs market. As such, we expect more decisive policy stimulus to reverse the growth slowdown.”

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Posted in Black Swan Watch, BRICs, China, Economics | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

The Solution to Global Warming?

Posted on June 20, 2012 by macromon

Great commercial from Perrier.  A nice little diversion during these hot days of summer.

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