China Real Estate: “Prices Will Fall By 50%”

Posted on March 17, 2012 by macromon

Sound familiar?  Keep this one on your radar.

NTD Television writes,

Chinese real estate has been seen as such a quick and lucrative investment that a special term, “chao fangzi” or “stir-frying houses,” was invented to describe property speculation. But the new consensus is that things got too hot too quickly, and both Chinese regime authorities and major players in the real estate market are trying to stabilize what some are already calling a bubble waiting to burst.

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Vodpod videos no longer available.

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Housing | Tagged , | 4 Comments

Happy St. Patrick’s (Maweyn Succat) Day!

Posted on March 17, 2012 by macromon

In case you’re wondering,  Maweyn Succat was St. Patrick’s real name and he wasn’t even Irish!.   Click here for some great background and history of St. Patrick’s Day.

Go Paddy, Rory, Graeme, and Darren!

Happy St. Patrick’s Day!  Not too many green beers, folks!

By the way, there has been one huge bond rally in Ireland over the past year.

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Posted in Bonds, General Interest, Picture of the Day, PIIGS | Tagged , , , , , , | 2 Comments

‘Toon of the Day: iHeavenly iPad

Posted on March 16, 2012 by macromon

      (click here if cartoon is not visible)

Posted in Apple, Cartoon of the Day | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Stratfor: China’s Trade Deficit

Posted on March 16, 2012 by macromon

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Posted in BRICs, China | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Quote of the Day

Posted on March 16, 2012 by macromon

Markets don’t change when fundamentals change, markets change when beliefs change  – David Darst

Posted in Quote of the Day | Tagged , | 5 Comments

Weekly Eurozone Watch: Bund Yield +25 bps, Tighter PIG

Posted on March 16, 2012 by macromon

Wow!   When was the last time Portugal, Italy, and Greece sovereign spreads tightened this much in one week?  Spain remains a concern, however,  widening 10 bps on the week even as the Bund yield increased over 25 bps.    Banks rebounded smartly from last week’s spanking.

Key Points:
German Bund 25.6 bps higher;
Italy 10-year 20.1 bps tighter;
Spain 10-year 10.3 bps wider;
Portugal 10-year 44.9 bps tighter;
Ireland 9-year 33.9 bps tighter;
Greece 10-year w.i. 155.6 bps tighter;
Banks rebound from last week’s sell-off;
Euro/$ up 0.37%.

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Posted in Weekly Eurozone Watch | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Nonlinear Thinking: Pessimistic? This is a MUST VIEW

Posted on March 15, 2012 by macromon

This is a must view, folks.

Please take the 16 minutes to watch the video.  It could change your whole investment philosophy, what you trade,  and your worldview.

Peter Diamandis makes a case for optimism — that we’ll invent, innovate and create ways to solve the challenges that loom over us. “I’m not saying we don’t have our set of problems; we surely do. But ultimately, we knock them down.”

Long Tech/Short Mathusians and Neo-Ludities!

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Posted in Nonlinear Thinking | Tagged , | 8 Comments

Apple Reversal: Time For The Pause That Refreshes

Posted on March 15, 2012 by macromon

Was that the top in Apple?  Seriously doubt it,  but maybe in the very short-term, however.

The stock opened at its high and managed to trade just above $600 and then downhill  all day.  It has run too far too fast and needs some time  to consolidate, in our opinion.   We were lucky to get some out close to the top in the pre-market and now will wait for the stock to establish the lower end of, what we think, will be a short-term consolidation range with $600 as the upper bound.

We could be wrong and the market might just be repricing this beast to a new multiple in full parabolic mode.

What we do know for certain, however,  is that bulls eat, bears eat, and pigs get slaughtered.  The hedge funds,  who are probably the largest holders of Apple en masse, not only understand this but are also not afraid to act on the  axiom.

Also note in the chart below that almost every, albeit rare, long red candlestick since the beginning of the year has been followed by more selling the next day.

It’s been an incredible run, but now the time has come for the (short) pause that refreshes.

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Posted in Apple | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

‘Toon of the Day: “Less Doom, But No Boom”

Posted on March 15, 2012 by macromon

Nice ‘toon from the Economist.  They do a good job in the caption/story in summing up the current global macro environment.   Here’s the money quote,

After so much gloom, it is hardly surprising that the world’s animal spirits are beginning to leap again. Yet there are good reasons to be wary of all the optimism. Global growth, dragged down by less ebullient emerging economies as well as recession in Europe, is still likely to be slower this year than it was in 2011..

And there are still big risks out there. Too often since the 2008 financial crisis investors’ hopes for strong and lasting growth have been dashed—whether by bad luck (soaring oil prices), bad policy (too much budget austerity too fast) or the painful realisation that recoveries after asset busts are generally weak and fragile. If tensions with Iran over its nuclear programme spike, for instance, an oil-supply shock could once more cause havoc. Much could yet go wrong.

And here’ ours:   “The ides of March have come”…”Ay, Caesar; but not gone.“

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Posted in Cartoon of the Day, Economics | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

TED 2012: Why Videos Go Viral

Posted on March 14, 2012 by macromon

Good stuff from the TED 2012 conference.  Kevin Allocca, YouTube’s trends manager, shares the 4 reasons a video goes viral and provides insight into the new media.

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Posted in General Interest, Video | Tagged , , | Leave a comment