Low Volume Christmas Rampopotamus

U.S. equities just keep marching higher on a low volume Santa Claus ramp.  Favorable technical patterns, though not confirmed by volume, keeps the dip buyers hanging in there.

We spoke of the inverted head and shoulders pattern in the S&P500 earlier in the week and this chart of the Trannies comes to us via James K.   Thanks!

We shall see how this plays out into the New Year.  A sustained rally will need be confirmed by the Shanghai, at the very least, bottoming and ending its free fall.   Enjoy the sleigh ride,  nevertheless!

(click here if chart is not available)

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U.S. Real Earnings, November 2011

Ouch!  Only three positive months in the last year. Lots of pain out there.  Be charitable this holiday season, our friends.  The return is tremendous.

(click here if graph is not observable)

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China Real Estate Prices Fall in November

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Spain’s PM Rajoy names insiders in new cabinet Euronews

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Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Nike: Macro Notes From the Conference Call

Nike reported good earnings after the bell and the stock traded up over the 3 percent in after hours.   Here are the money quotes from the Nike executives on this afternoon’s conference call:

 

Global Economy
Overall, a remarkable performance in what continues to be a very volatile global economy that has yet to deliver a uniform recovery. And looking ahead, economic and political uncertainty are unlikely to abate in any meaningful way in the short-term, so risk and challenges do remain…

Let’s take a look at our NIKE Brand results on a constant currency basis. Global revenue was up to date 18%, and global futures were up 13%. Every geography, except Japan, grew its top line, and 6 of our 7 key categories increased revenue…

Let’s look at China, which continues to pose very strong numbers. Revenue in China grew 28% for the quarter. Footwear is up 27% and Apparel was even higher up 34% on the quarter. In part, benefiting from changes in shipment timing compared to last year. When I look at our China business, I see a couple of things at work. First, we continue to build brand loyalty with the young consumers. And second, we’re leveraging the category offense to bring the most relevant products and services to the marketplace. The consumers are responding.

Going forward, the big growth opportunity in China is based on our ability to connect directly with young consumers there, and we’re continuing to work hard at it. The passion for sport is building in China, and NIKE is at the center of it. We’re also working to leverage in Western Europe, which remains a very challenging economic environment. But we believe that our commitment to innovation and premium brand position will inspire consumers and set us up for the long-term growth. We’re using what we know about the significant benefits of transforming a marketplace through the category offense to continue to elevate the NIKE Brand positioning in Western Europe. And we expect to reap those benefits over time, as the category offense takes hold throughout that geography…

On a reported basis, revenues for North America grew 21%, and EBIT grew 17%, as robust revenue growth and SG&A leverage were partially offset by lower gross margins.

In Western Europe, Q2 revenue increased 2% on a currency neutral basis, as growth in Running, football, Women’s Training and Basketball were partially offset by lower sportswear revenues. On a territory basis, double-digit growth in our AGS Territory; Austria, Germany, and Switzerland, were partially offset by declines in nearly every other territory.

On a reported basis, revenues for Western Europe grew 7%, but EBIT declined 35%, due mostly to lower gross margins. Unfavorable FX rates and higher product cost more than offset upsides from direct to consumer and higher prices to drive the gross margin decline.

In Central and Eastern Europe, Q2 revenue grew 19% on a currency neutral basis, driven by higher revenues across all categories, led by double-digit growth in Running, Football, and Men’s and Women’s Training. On a territory basis, double-digit growth in Russia and Turkey more than offset lower revenues in Southern and Central European markets, such as Greece and Poland…

On a reported basis, revenues for CEE grew 17%, but EBIT was down 31%, driven primarily by lower gross margins, which were adversely impacted by both higher product costs and higher discounts.

In China, growth accelerated in Q2, as currency neutral revenues grew 28%, reflecting growth across all categories and territories. Footwear continues to perform very well, as revenues advanced 27% for the quarter. Apparel revenues grew 34% in Q2, due in part to a shift in timing from Q2 to Q3 last year. Excluding these changes, China Apparel would’ve grown about 20% in Q2. While we’ve made progress with Apparel in China, we believe significant opportunities remain to position this business for profitable growth going forward.

Reported revenues for China grew 35% and EBIT increased 26%, as higher revenues and SG&A leverage were partially offset by lower gross margins. Gross margins were lower in Q2 as a result of higher input costs and discounts to clear a slow-moving Apparel inventories, more than offsetting the benefit of higher prices.

Japan continued to deliver mixed results, as currency neutral revenues fell 7% in Q2, reflecting holiday futures orders taken in the weeks immediately following the natural disaster in March. While revenues declined for most key categories, Running was a bright spot, delivering double-digit growth for the quarter. Reported revenues for Japan increased 3%, but EBIT declined 3%, as higher revenue and improved gross margins were offset by SG&A deleverage.

Our Emerging Markets geography continues to drive strong growth, as Q2 revenues grew 26% on both the reported and currency neutral basis. Every category and territory posted higher revenues, with Brazil, Argentina, Mexico and Korea driving the largest share of the growth. EBIT for the Emerging Markets increased 27%, driven by revenue growth and SG&A leverage, which more than offset lower gross margins.

Technology and Innovation
… we’ve opened the door to truly game changing innovation. And some of the most powerful potential for innovation lies in the digital technology space. We’re using digital to change everything about the product creation process, from the time it leaves the mind of the designer to when it gets into the hands of our consumer. Truly breakthrough innovation that will allow us to accelerate how we create and commercialize new products.

Social networking and digital communication is helping us unify and expand the family of sport. We’ve never been closer to our consumers as they continue to extend their reach and connect even more with each other, with their sports heroes and their favorite teams. And digital technology is a powerful enabler of the huge opportunities we have in our Direct to Consumer business and in working with our wholesale partners.

“New Running Boom”
For brand strength, let’s turn to Running. It’s been a great quarter. In fact, it’s been a great year. My favorite running story of the quarter has to be the event we did in Seoul, South Korea, a city with incredible energy and a growing influence in youth culture. We sponsored a 10K there as part of our WE RUN campaign that takes place in 16 cities throughout our Emerging Markets geography. It sold out with more than 30,000 people, in just 2 hours. And we continue to have similar turnouts around the world. 10,000 runners in Singapore, 12,000 in Kuala Lumpur, 15,000 in Buenos Aires, and 23,000 in Guadalajara in Mexico City. And then there was the Chicago Marathon, 45,000 runners, store events, product expose, training runs, and it all came together online through Nike+. It was our most digital Marathon ever.

We haven’t seen this much energy around Running since the first boom happened back in the ’70s. We were in the middle of that one, and we’re in the middle of this one as well. Our results prove it, with Running up strong double digits again in Q2.

Click tables to enlarge and for better resolution.

(click here if tables are not observable)

Posted in Earnings | 1 Comment

The Isle of Man TT: Insane Ride, Like This Year’s Market

Why does this feel like this year’s ride in the markets?  We had a couple of trades like the over the cliff crashes in the video.  Nasty stuff.

Hat tip Lawrence “of America” Wagner.

(click here if video is not observable)

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‘Twas 5 Days Before Christmas

‘Twas 5 days before Christmas, when all through the house, No investor was long, not even their spouse.
The stocks were all shorted by the big old bad bear,
In hopes that St Nicholas would soon not be there.

The traders were certain the ‘Claus rally was dead,
With visions of profits as stocks turned all red.
And Obama was sweating, as the S&P seemed capped,
The first post-war Prez to see his third year stocks zapped.

When out of Europa there arose such a clatter,
Spanish T-bills sprang forth to make the shorts scatter.
Away through the 50-day it flew like a flash,
Tore open the shorts and took all their cash.

The S&P500’s close well above its 50-day SMA now sets us up for some history.   Will President Obama be the first post-war President to experience a negative return on the S&P500 in the third year of his term?  That is,  the S&P500 has had a positive return every third year of every term, both, first and second, since President Eisenhower in 1955.

Our answer?   After today?  Probably not, meaning it’s our guess today’s momentum continues and the S&P500 finishes the year positive.  That’s our well hedged best guess, at best.

Remember 1991, the third year of President Bush #41,  which saw a nutcracking 10.5 percent ramp in the last 14 trading days.   When the big money is away, the bulls can play.

The S&P500 has traced a fairly well formed inverse head and shoulders pattern (see chart) with the neckline (breakout level) coinciding with the 200-day moving average, which has proven formidable resistance.   Thus, if the S&P500 does manage to make it into the green for the year, above 1257,  it probably won’t do it by just limping there.

Still lots of headline risk out of Europe and Asia.  Should be an exciting end to an extremely difficult year.

(click here if charts are not observable)

Posted in Charts, Equities | Tagged , | 2 Comments

China’s Financial Architecture

Here’s what we will be reading over the holiday,  Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China’s Extraordinary Rise, which Bloomberg named as one of the top business books of 2011.  Our sense is China’s financial sector will be on everybody’s radar by the middle of  2012.   Untangling and understanding it — if that is possible — and identifying where the bad debts are held could return big divies in the coming new year.

Add Paul Krugman to the list of those now expressing concern about China’ falling real estate market,

Do we actually know that real estate was a bubble? It exhibited all the signs: not just rising prices, but also the kind of speculative fever all too familiar from our own experiences just a few years back — think coastal Florida.

And there was another parallel with U.S. experience: as credit boomed, much of it came not from banks but from an unsupervised, unprotected shadow banking system. There were huge differences in detail: shadow banking American style tended to involve prestigious Wall Street firms and complex financial instruments, while the Chinese version tends to run through underground banks and even pawnshops. Yet the consequences were similar: in China as in America a few years ago, the financial system may be much more vulnerable than data on conventional banking reveal.

Now the bubble is visibly bursting. How much damage will it do to the Chinese economy — and the world?

That is our homework assignment over the holiday.  Getting it right will determine 2012’s investment and trading returns, in our opinion.

We leave you with an excellent flowchart and table from the IMF explaining China’s financial architecture.   Click charts to enlarge and for better resolution. 

(click here if tables are not observable)

Posted in China, Housing, Inflation/Deflation | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Spain’s New P.M. Unveils Austerity Measures

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Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Now for Some Good News…

Remember this?

The hottest tech gadget in the summer of 1975.  The boomers’ iPhone!

The inflation adjusted cost today?  $1,600.98!  How’s that stack up with a modern day laptop or tablet at $500-1,000?

This ad from the June 1975  Technology Review goes a long way in explaining the productivity boom of the past thirty years.   Enjoy your technology and keep it in perspective, comrades!    (click here if ad is not observable)

Posted in Apple, Technology | Tagged | 3 Comments