Merkel Hammers Greece on Retirement Age and Vacation

The European election cycle is kicking into high gear as the German chancellor had some tough words for Greece,  Spain, and Portugal.  Spiegel ONLINE reports,

“It is also important that people in countries like Greece, Spain and Portugal are not able to retire earlier than in Germany — that everyone exerts themselves more or less equally. That is important.”

She added: “We can’t have a common currency where some get lots of vacation time and others very little. That won’t work in the long term.”

Her comments were not well received by the German opposition, however.   The leader of the Social Democrats, Sigmar Gabriel,

“It is shameful that Merkel is gambling away the European idea … only to receive praise from the tabloids. She is fomenting anti-European resentment.”

The co-head of the Green Party, Cem Özdemir, shot back at Merkel,

“arbitrary selection of specific issues doesn’t help countries like Greece, Portugal and Spain nor does it reflect reality.”

Calling her comments “absurd,” Daniel Cohn-Bendit, head of the Greens in European Parliament,  had this to say,

“Of course people in southern Europe work a lot,” he said. Instead of “looking for cheap applause,” Merkel should make concrete proposals, he added.

Can monetary union work without “cultural union”?  Is it just policy differences  or do the work ethics of the various Eurozone countries really differ?  If so, should there be forced convergence?  These are some of the questions the Eurozone is wrestling with as they work through their existential crisis and try to save the common currency.

And how ironic was it,  in our culture of bailouts,  that the (former) head of the world’s numero uno sovereign bailout bureaucracy, the IMF,  was “bailed out” today?  Hollywood couldn’t make this stuff up.   A Greek tragedy within the Greece tragedy.

Posted in Euro, PIIGS, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

The New (La)Garde at the IMF?

That’s our bet.    Also check out the WashPost piece, Why Christine Lagarde should run the IMF.    (click here if video is not observable)

Posted in General Interest, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Video | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Quote of the Day: SecTreas Gets It

There is no way of knowing how long financial markets will give the American political system to get ahead of this [fiscal/sovereign debt] problem.  But it makes no sense for us to wait until they force action upon us.   – Timothy Geithner,  May 17, 2011

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Components of the Official U.S. Inflation Rate


(click here if charts are not observable)

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The Line on the Next IMF Boss

O Armenio, where art thou?   Always thought the IMF has an extreme distaste for hedge funds.   Our bet another WYB (Western Yurp Bureaucrat)  ‘cuz that’s what the IMF is full of.

(click here if chart is not available)

Posted in Charts, Economics, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Quote(s) of the Day: Living in (Sur)reality

“Greece is solvent” — Juergen Stark,  ECB Chief Economist

¡Defenderé el peso como un perro! – “I will defend the peso like a dog!”
– José López Portillo,  President of Mexico 1976-82

Liquid?  Yes.  Solvent?  No, unless Greece is willing to sell off the country jewels as Mexico’s creditors suggested selling Baja California during the LDC debt crisis.    The bigger question for Mr. Stark is the Eurozone politically solvent?  (click here if chart is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Quote of the Day, Quotes, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

S&P500 Tests 50-day Moving Average (and Passes)

The S&P500 and Nasdaq tested, traded through, and closed above their 50-day moving averages aided by a huge reversal in Apple, the rest of tech, and an impressive late day broad market rally.   Another positive was the behavior of the VIX, which fell 3.8 percent from yesterday’s close.

The key question is “was that it?”   We’re not sure, but doubt it.  With zero percent interest rates and the 10-year at 3.10 percent the equity markets are holding money hostage as there is no place to go.   Today felt like a wasted day at the Circle J Ranch as traders seemed to be getting short and buying back stock from each other.   Nothing was really resolved.

Nevertheless,  one must respect the action and look to history for direction.  The chart below shows that on November 29, the S&P 500 similarly pierced its 50-day by 0.31 percent intraday only to close 0.88 percent above the 50-day.   The VIX also fell 3.1 percent that day.  This set up the 12.85 percent sling shot rally into mid-February.

Today the S&P 500 traded through its 50-day by 0.40 percent and closed 0.39 percent above the 50-day.   The VIX fell 3.8 percent on the day.   We doubt the S&P is done with the 50-day and ready to rally likes its  Novie 29.   Recall,  QE2 was just launching back then and is now ready for the dry dock.

We’re respectful of today’s action, but we think the jackhammers will be back banging on the 50-day at least a few more times before the market sounds the all-clear whistle, which you know it never does.    Stay tuned,  friends.   (click here if chart is not observable)

Posted in Equities | Tagged , , | 5 Comments

Chart of the Day: Europe’s Runaway Sovereign Debt

Great chart from the Der Spiegel website:

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

Two Red Flags: Russell and the Hang Seng

We note that the Russell 2000 broke its 50-day moving average today and the Hang Seng pierced its 200-day last night.  We also just posted the S&P 500 looks ready to test its 50-day.    These two indices are key indicators of the global markets’ propensity to take risk.   We’ve written several times of how the Hang Seng is the indicator species for global risk.

Sure we can bounce as it looks like traders are getting pretty negative and short here and you know how the market will punish when too many are offside,  but the Russell and Hang Seng may be signaling a coming summer of risk aversion and capital preservation.   No time to be a hero, in our opinion.  (click here if table is not observable)

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S&P 500: Three Key Support Levels

Looks like a test of the 5o-day for the S&P500 is a no brainer (we get nervous over this term) as we broke the weekly lows of May 6th.   If the 50-day doesn’t hold,  traders will likely close the April 2oth gap at 1312. 62.  If that fails,  look to support at the April 18th close of 1305.14 and intraday low of 1294.70.   (click here if chart is not observable)

Posted in Equities | Tagged , , | 8 Comments