Global Macro Monitor

The following chart illustrates an excellent heuristic and simple (if not too simplistic) illustration of longer-term stock market valuation moves.  Note how the stock market’s capitalization has significantly outpaced nominal GDP — never sustainable — since the nadir of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). In contrast, the ex-post real 10-year Treasury yield has fallen from 4.76 percent at the end of Q1 2009 to -6.24 percent at the end of Q1 2022.   

Simple Upshot? 

Stocks love ex-post negative 10-year nominal yields, where the inflation expectation component misses realized inflation in a big way.  This model suggests if you’re betting on a new stock bull market beginning sometime soon, you’re also betting on the recent move in real yields to the upside to reverse and turn more negative.  That is a bet on several issues, including how distorted the bond markets are, the credibility of the Fed, the Treasury holdings of foreign central banks, and the path of inflation, among others. 

Good stuff, must view.

Global Economy Accelerating To The Downside

Logistics Costs Stabilizing 

U.S. Sector PMI

Battery Plants In Europe

Auto Retail Is The Largest Consumer Retail Vertical

Oh. My. Gawd!  This kid, Mr. Irrelevant, is Purdy good and is going to be something special!   What a story. 

“I am not an Athenian or a Greek, but a citizen of the world.” – Socrates

Yup, we are with Krugman on this one. Always have been. Now Saturday Night Live is mocking crypto.  

My hard working nurses were duped and sucked into the hype. Here’s to hoping people go to jail.  Doubtful. 

No doubt I’ll hear from many people still insisting that I don’t get it. But it really looks as if there never was an it to get. – Paul Krugman

It is difficult to free fools from the [block] chains they revere. — Voltaire

I am very into astrology and I know some are going to say it’s not real, but I say, how’s that crypto going? – Keke Palmer, SNL, Dec 3rd

Jobs Exceed Forecast,  Avg Hourly Earnings 2x Expectations

Share Of Prime Age Workforce Falling

Share Of Americans Working Still Below Pre-COVID Levels

Post-COVID Shift In Male/Female Labor Force 

Small Business Leads In Layoffs

Jobless Claims Remain Low

Personal Income Strong 

Excess Savings Remain High As Savings Rates Revert To Normal

Average Gas Prices 

Share of Renewables As % of Electricity Generation

Diesel And Heating Oil Costs

The Fed’s Relatively Rapid Tightening Cycle