Monthly Archives: March 2012

Euro Fracture: Cradle of Civilization Headed for Revolution?

Posted on March 13, 2012 by macromon

Interesting interview with British MEP, Paul Nuttal.    He worries about political instability spreading in the Eurozone and raises the notion of a harder euro for the northern countries. We believe the best case, at the end of the day,  … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, PIIGS, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Leave a comment

What Drives Crude Oil Prices?

Posted on March 13, 2012 by macromon

(click here if chart is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Crude Oil | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Nassim Taleb: The Next Black Swan

Posted on March 13, 2012 by macromon

In case you missed Nassim Taleb’s interview on CNBC this morning. He endorsed Ron Paul and is a bit cryptic in his four points, one of which,  that a sovereign debt crisis is coming to the United States.   Rather than … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Interviews, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

S&P500 Breakout & The Ambiguity of Stock Value

Posted on March 13, 2012 by macromon

Today has to be the least appreciated breakout that’s ever happened.   Tonight’s Fast Money crowd, for example, described it as the long awaited blow-off top.  You know, the same guy that has been wrong for the last 600 S&P points … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Equities | Tagged , , | 5 Comments

Stratfor: Enforceability and Credibility in the EU

Posted on March 13, 2012 by macromon

No street cred?   Double standard? Take a look at this piece at Spiegel Online on how even Germany is violating its own austerity measures, SPIEGEL reports this week that the German government didn’t reach even half of its planned savings … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

Romney Tops Obama in Latest WaPost/ABC Poll

Posted on March 12, 2012 by macromon

The results of the latest WashPost/ABC poll are a bit surprising and should have the White House a little worried, Public disapproval of President Obama’s handling of the economy is again on the rise, alongside increasing gas prices. One political … Continue reading →

Posted in Politics | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Deconstructing the U.S. Employment Data

Posted on March 12, 2012 by macromon

Take a look at construction employment.  Now you know why the President’s political handlers are so desperate to get the housing market turned around.  Normally  lower interest rates stimulates the construction and leads the economy out of recession.   This time … Continue reading →

Posted in Employment | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Charlie Rose: Christine Lagarde

Posted on March 12, 2012 by macromon

Good interview with the IMF’s Christine Lagarde.  They discuss a wide range of topics, including the Greece debt swap, the two Super Marios of Europe, the “new Italian Renaissance,” and the future of the International Monetary Fund.  Well worth your … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Interviews, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Range Bound S&P500: Stalling or Consolidating?

Posted on March 11, 2012 by macromon

A couple of interesting charts of the S&P500, which frame the recent trading action. Short-term the S&P500 is in a trading range of 1340-1378 and looks to be working off severe overbought conditions with a healthy consolidation.  This seems to … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

Week in Review

Posted on March 11, 2012 by macromon

(click here if charts are not observable)

Posted in Week in Review | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment