Monthly Archives: January 2017

COTD: WalMart Nation

Posted on January 26, 2017 by macromon

Which jobs do you think trade tariffs will destroy?  Retail, no? As tariffs and border taxes are implemented,  the price of goods rise,  real income falls,  ergo demand falls and fewer WalMart shoppers buying higher priced goods equal layoffs.   … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | 9 Comments

Building a Wall Between the U.S. and Mexico – Stratfor

Posted on January 26, 2017 by macromon

Stratfor Latin America Analyst Reggie Thompson discusses the steps that would have to be taken before the construction of a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border could begin. For more analysis, visit: http://www.Stratfor.com  

Posted in Geopolitical, Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged | Leave a comment

Who Could Lose the Most in a U.S.-China Trade War?

Posted on January 25, 2017 by macromon

Jan.22 — Now that Donald Trump is in the White House, the world’s biggest companies are trying to gauge the likelihood of a U.S. trade war with China. If the tension escalates, there could be losers on both sides. Bloomberg’s … Continue reading →

Posted in China, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

“Good Trump” Catapults Dow To 20K As “Bad Trump” Lurks

Posted on January 25, 2017 by macromon

Party on, Garth! The Dow crossed 20k as the market perceives accelerated future profit growth from the “Good Trump” policies – deregulation, etc. – and traders surf the Keystone pipeline to higher prices.   The momentum will continue until it … Continue reading →

Posted in China, Economics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Gold Still Tracking Bonds

Posted on January 25, 2017 by macromon

We posted last week the correlation of the bond and gold.  Some argue gold has been rallying as a hedge against inflation or inversely with the dollar.   Don’t think so and not yet on the inflation hedge. Gold is moody … Continue reading →

Posted in Gold | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Saudi Arabia’s Economic and Demographic Reckoning – Stratfor

Posted on January 24, 2017 by macromon

Stratfor Middle East Analyst Emily Hawthorne looks at the factors complicating Riyadh’s latest effort at reform. For more analysis, visit: http://www.Stratfor.com

Posted in Crude Oil, Geopolitical | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Inflation Cometh

Posted on January 23, 2017 by macromon

Our view that inflation in the U.S. is going to be the biggest market risk of 2017 is starting to take shape.   Take a look at rents in the second chart below. European political risks?   Nah. The March 15 elections … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | Leave a comment

America-first and the dollar-yen trade – FT

Posted on January 23, 2017 by macromon

The FT’s Leo Lewis looks at how uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s America First policy affects the dollar-yen currency trade. ► Subscribe to FT.com here: http://on.ft.com/2eZZoLI

Posted in Japan, Policy, Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

The Transition Trade

Posted on January 23, 2017 by macromon

Nice chart (hat tip King David over at thinkinthemoring.com) from Wall Street Journal on the return of the Dow Jones after election day to the inauguration of presidents all the way back to McKinley when the Dow index was created. … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Politics | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Reagan-Trump S&P500 Analog

Posted on January 22, 2017 by macromon

We continue to track the meaningless (in terms of projecting trajectory)  Reagan-Trump S&P500 analog.  At their respective inaugurations, the Trump S&P is outperforming Reagan by 4.4 percent.  Note, Trump was inaugurated 51 trading days after the election whereas Reagan’s inauguration … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged | Leave a comment