Yearly Archives: 2018

Textbook Progression To A Bear Market

Posted on February 21, 2018 by macromon

OK.  Not a bear market quite yet. The official level of the S&P500 for the current sell-off to morph into a bear market (down 20 percent from local high) is 2298.30, down 14.92 percent from today’s close.  The official correction … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 21 Comments

Karl, The Comeback Kid?

Posted on February 20, 2018 by macromon

Why do we think the world is about to see the resurrection of the “comrade culture club” over the next ten years? Make no mistake; there will be a visceral political reaction to the coming acceleration of  labor disrupting technology.  … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 40 Comments

Historical Ranking of U.S. Presidents

Posted on February 19, 2018 by macromon

Happy Presidents Day! The American Presidency was one of our favorite college courses, so we find the latest survey and rankings of American presidents (colored by quartiles) always interesting. The following table is the 2018 ranking of U.S. presidents by … Continue reading →

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QOTD: Paul Tudor Jones

Posted on February 17, 2018 by macromon

“We are in the throes of a burgeoning financial bubble.  If I had a choice between holding a U.S. Treasury bond or a hot burning coal in my hand, I would choose the coal.” – Paul Tudor Jones  (QOTD = … Continue reading →

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Week In Review – February 16

Posted on February 17, 2018 by macromon

Nice bounce. The S&P500 is up 7.88 percent off the low and has recovered 58.65 percent of its loss.  It looks like the pivot is the .618 Fibonacci retracement level, which it traded through but could not hold as the … Continue reading →

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Fate of ‘Dreamers’ and US border wall in doubt – FT

Posted on February 17, 2018 by macromon

Efforts to reach a US immigration deal suffered a major setback as Senate failed to approve a bipartisan plan that would have granted legal status to unauthorised immigrants known as Dreamers ► Subscribe to FT.com here:http://bit.ly/2GakujT

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Sector ETF Performance – February 16

Posted on February 17, 2018 by macromon
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Global Risk Monitor – February 16

Posted on February 17, 2018 by macromon
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When Algos Go Rogue

Posted on February 16, 2018 by macromon

No political statement here but the following decision tree illustrates how algorithms can be biased. Note decision trees are a fundamental tool of artificial intelligence, algorithms and predictive analytics and their biases can destroy lives and even countries.     … Continue reading →

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Lies, Damned Lies, And Statistics…And The CPI

Posted on February 15, 2018 by macromon

The first three of those words are attributed to the British Prime Minister,  Benjamin Disraeli, and also sometimes associated with Mark Twain. You know our skepticism of most government data, especially the BLS calculation of inflation in consumer goods and … Continue reading →

Posted in Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 125 Comments