Monthly Archives: September 2019

The Magical Monetary Policy Mystery Tour

Wow!  Just heard a so-called “banking expert” say that the Fed was reducing reserves on their balance sheet during quantitative tightening (QT), which has led to the current chaos in the overnight repo market.   Not entirely true. Asymmetric Libalibity Balance … Continue reading

Posted in Fiscal Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Impeachment Market Update

Since our post on the impeachment market about nine hours ago, the 2019 contract is up 81 percent, from 21 to 38, and 322 percent in the past week.   Annualize that return! Mr. Market is not priced for the … Continue reading

Posted in Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged | Leave a comment

Impeachment Prediction Market Flying

Check out the prediction market on impeachment over at PredictIt. Odds Have Moved From 11:1 To 4.8:1 Trump Will Now Impeached By Year-End The contract that Trump will be impeached by the end of 2019 is up 133 percent in … Continue reading

Posted in Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged | 2 Comments

If It’s On The Internet, It’s True. Right?

Don't just teach your students to read. Teach them to question what they read, what they study. Teach them to doubt. Teach them to think. — Richard Feynman (@ProfFeynman) September 23, 2019

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President Trump grants exemptions on 400 tariffs

Probably not the roll back China was looking for?

Posted in China, Trade War, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

What’s Hot In Women’s Fashion

Capitalism at its best or worst? We have a few questions:  1)  Does the Tariff Man get a royalty for the sale of each dress sold, and will that violate the Emoluments Clause of the U.S. Constitution, and 2) Are … Continue reading

Posted in Trade War, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 6 Comments

Beware Mocking Bubbles & Bears

Once again, seeing lots of articles and talking heads mocking bubbles and the bears, which is usually a sign a big bubble is going to burst.  The last time we saw this kind of taunting of the bears was three … Continue reading

Posted in Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 15 Comments

QOTD: Pick Your Poison, Or Not

QOTD = Quote of the Day Both propositions are equally uncomfortable in today’s market.   Also, partially explains why the default investment strategy is now passive. When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long … Continue reading

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Major Global Stock Market Caps

Hat Tip: @jessefelder Our Favorite Valuation Metric We had to post our favorite macro stock valuation measure.   Some caveats come with the comps, including exchange rate translation.

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The ‘Bots Are Coming For The Priests

Good, God! A mechanical ‘priest’ has recently begun conducting Buddhist prayers in Japan. It is not the first attempt to deliver religious teachings and advice through the use of a programmed machine. And Catholic Christians may soon find spiritual advice … Continue reading

Posted in Technology, Uncategorized | Tagged | 19 Comments