Author Archives: macromon

The Looming Donnybrook Between Cyclical & Structural

Posted on April 1, 2018 by macromon

This next quarter is going to be a major battle between the cyclical bulls and structural bears. Cyclical Bulls The bulls have the strength of current earnings, which may, or may not be priced (probably the later as the market is … Continue reading →

Posted in Earnings, Economics, Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged | 17 Comments

Trump’s Tax Cut Will Widen Trade Deficit

Posted on April 1, 2018 by macromon

Last year’s Republican tax plan was hailed as a victory for US President Donald Trump, but it carries a hidden cost: a ballooning US trade deficit. As happened after Ronald Reagan’s cuts in the 1980s, Trump’s cut is almost certain … Continue reading →

Posted in China, Economics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Another S&P500 Streak Snapped

Posted on April 1, 2018 by macromon

The first quarter ends with another snapped streak for the S&P500. Going into Q1, the S&P500 had delivered positive returns for 16 consecutive quarters or four straight years. The chart illustrates how rare the streak has been over the past half … Continue reading →

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In Theory: The Rise and Fall of GDP – Project Syndicate

Posted on March 31, 2018 by macromon

We fully expect a “revolution” in the measurement of economic data as “big data” takes an increasing role in society and dominates metrics and measurements. It won’t be long before we have precision real-time measurements from everything to real economic … Continue reading →

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Q1 in Review

Posted on March 31, 2018 by macromon

Q1: Lake Placid To The Mavericks The markets closed out the quarter trying to recover from one of the biggest volatility shocks in history, which began in early February.   The question for Q2 is:  Was the v-shock a one-off or a … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Commodities, Currency, Equities, Uncategorized, Week in Review | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Sector ETF Performance – March 30

Posted on March 31, 2018 by macromon
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Global Risk Monitor – March 30

Posted on March 31, 2018 by macromon
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Inflation Indicators: Measures & Composition

Posted on March 30, 2018 by macromon
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What Keeps Us Up At Night…

Posted on March 29, 2018 by macromon

This could end America’s free-ride:  no more QE;  no more balance of payments deficits without tears;  and no more foreign financing of the U.S. budget deficit. We hope the Administration at least is concerned and has it on their radar. … Continue reading →

Posted in Dollar, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 5 Comments

Opening Day…

Posted on March 29, 2018 by macromon

Seals Stadium, San Francisco 4/15/58 – First Major League pitch in California is delivered by Giants opening day pitcher Ruben Gomez to LA Dodgers batter Gino Cimoli. After 1957 season, both teams uprooted from NYC and moved to West Coast. … Continue reading →

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