Author Archives: macromon

U.S. Job Creation & Wages Over Past 7 1/2 Years

Posted on August 3, 2017 by macromon

On the eve of nonfarm payrolls here is a nice data dump that gives a good roadmap of what and how many jobs have been created since 2010.   We’ll layout just the data with some bullet points and let … Continue reading →

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The “Dusenberry Effect” In The U.S. Economy

Posted on August 3, 2017 by macromon

Just saw this chart on Zero Hedge yesterday, which takes me back to the days of graduate school and an unfinished Ph.D. dissertation. One part of the “Dusenberry Effect” basically states that consumers do not give up their consumption patterns … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 17 Comments

Earnings Beat “Fist Pumps” Very Muted This Quarter

Posted on August 2, 2017 by macromon

Stephen Gandel of Bloomberg out with a good piece this morning on: …shares of companies that have reported both better-than-expected profits and sales for the second quarter have barely budged this earnings season. It’s the least fist-bumping investors have done … Continue reading →

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Watch This Space – Industrials v Transports

Posted on August 1, 2017 by macromon

Not as relevant as it used to be,  but something to keep on your radar.  Transports approaching 200-day moving average at 9,117.59 (corrected on Aug. 19) and diverging from Industrials. Dow Theory, baby! The [Dow} theory was created by Charles … Continue reading →

Posted in Equity, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Apple’s Revenue Growth

Posted on August 1, 2017 by macromon

Interesting revenue makeup from Apple’s earnings release. Overall revenue up 7 percent y/y;  iPhone revenue up 3 percent y/y;  and the only negative is a 10 percent y/y decline in China – sixth straight quarter down in the country.   Tim … Continue reading →

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QOTD: Risk

Posted on August 1, 2017 by macromon

You want to take risk when others are fleeing from it, not when they’re competing with you to do so. …But it’s precisely when people can’t see what it is that could make things turn down that risk is highest, … Continue reading →

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July Key Takeaways

Posted on July 31, 2017 by macromon

Stock Indices Emerging markets dominated stock returns in July with Turkey leading the way. India, which we stated was one our favorites at the beginning of the month continues to rip,  up over 22 percent, YTD.   This is going to … Continue reading →

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No Worries: Vol Not Priced For Budget Ceiling

Posted on July 31, 2017 by macromon

Do the markets price risk anymore?   That it is always inevitable when the world is awash with central bank based liquidity is not a surprise. We do see the VIX creeping back over 10 after trading with 8 handle for … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Fiscal Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 6 Comments

The “Firming” Global Recovery

Posted on July 29, 2017 by macromon

The IMF upgraded their view of the global economy, while slightly downgrading U.S. economic growth due to lack of fiscal progress. The Global Economy Maintains Momentum The cyclical recovery continues. Growth outturns in the first quarter of 2017 were higher … Continue reading →

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Week In Review

Posted on July 29, 2017 by macromon

Global Stocks Flat week for the S&P500 after making new all-time earlier in the week although the Dow continues to make record highs.  Nasdaq also new record early in week then  succumbed to profit taking on Thursday and Friday.   India, … Continue reading →

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