Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

Real Pain in Spain

Posted on March 29, 2012 by macromon

Youth unemployment (<25 years) running at 50 percent!   The stuff the “clash of generations” is made of.  It’s starting to feel the world is about three sparks away. (click here if video is observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Real Pain in the Eurozone

Posted on March 28, 2012 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, PIIGS | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

China and Brazil Equity Markets Rolling Over

Posted on March 28, 2012 by macromon

The Brazilian Bovespa, which has been one the best performing global equity indices in 2012,  looks like it’s rolling over.   It was down 1.62 percent today and closed below its 50-day moving average for the first time this year.   Brazil’s … Continue reading →

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Real Chance of Japan-like Housing Slump – Robert Shiller

Posted on March 27, 2012 by macromon

Robert Shiller, who coined the term “irrational exuberance,” is one of our favorite economists.   He really nails it here on the structural shifts taking place in housing.   We agree there is a generational change going on in the sector where … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Housing, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

Watch Dr. Copper

Posted on March 25, 2012 by macromon

Copper is at a key level and its direction may indicate where global equity and risk markets are headed in the next few weeks.  A break through short-term support may signal deeper problems in China’s economy. We’re pretty bearish short-term … Continue reading →

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Hugh Hendry’s ‘Greatest Hits’

Posted on March 24, 2012 by macromon

Now for some weekend entertainment. Hugh Hendry is one of our favorite hedge fund managers and OSD — one smart dude.  Watch how H-squared gives facials to the academics in the video, especially Jeffrey Sachs.  Stiglitz was soooo wrong on … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, PIIGS, Policy, Politics, Whales | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Stratfor: Threats to Europe’s Austerity Coalition

Posted on March 23, 2012 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Picture of the Day: Spain’s Real Estate Bust

Posted on March 23, 2012 by macromon

Apartment blocks in Sesena in the Toledo Provence near Madrid, Spain, seen on February 9, 2012. Only a 45-minute drive from downtown Madrid, towering vacant apartment blocks loom over empty streets and weed-filled lots. Apartments galore are for sale and … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Housing, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

China HSBC Flash PMI At 4-Month Low

Posted on March 21, 2012 by macromon

The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI is showing further contraction. Could worries over China slowing, coupled with renewed jitters in Europe, be the catalyst for the long awaited correction in global equities?  That’s how we’re positioned, but recognize it’s a … Continue reading →

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Charlie Rose: China’s Macro Challenges

Posted on March 21, 2012 by macromon

Excellent group discussion on doing business in China and the macro challenges facing the country.  The panel has experience and great perspective, especially Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group,  who has an interesting view on China’s transition to a domestic … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment