Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

Is the Fed Contributing to the Credit/Mortgage Crunch?

Posted on September 27, 2011 by macromon

One of the smartest hedge fund managers we know spends most of his day locked away in his office analyzing how the market consensus could be wrong.  He hangs with au contraire crowd, breaking bread with contrarians and demands you … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , , | 14 Comments

Disintermediation in China’s Banking System

Posted on September 26, 2011 by macromon

The consequences of negative real interest rates and financial repression.   We know how this story ends.   Keep this one on your radar. (click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Credit, Inflation/Deflation, Monetary Policy, Real Estate | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Week-long unrest in Greece ahead of troika meeting

Posted on September 26, 2011 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

La Grande Divergence

Posted on September 26, 2011 by macromon

Great chart of eurozone sovereign 10-year yields from Desmond Lachman of the American Enterprise Institute.  We made a decent living off the “great convergence trade” of the 1990’s, where yields of the eurozone sovereigns collapsed on top of each other.  … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

Interview: Anni Podimata, Greece VP of the European Parliament

Posted on September 24, 2011 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Each U.S Citizen Owes $3,719 to China and $475 to Russia

Posted on September 24, 2011 by macromon

Created by: MBA Online (click here if chart is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, BRICs, Budget Deficit, China, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Look east, young man, at the “64 million empty apartments”

Posted on September 24, 2011 by macromon

In the context of Jeremy Grantham’s warning that this is no market for young men, coupled with this week’s collapse in copper, oil, and the Hang Seng, we wonder if the realization and fallout from China’s ghost cities is  really … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Unfinished Business

Posted on September 22, 2011 by macromon

The markets’ beating and rally into the close has the bottom callers out in force claiming the lows have held.  We’re not so sure.  The three macro legs of the market stool (no pun intended) are still wobbly with the … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Charts, Equities, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Jeremy Grantham: ‘No market for young men’

Posted on September 21, 2011 by macromon

Be sure to catch Johnathan Burton’s piece on MarketWatch.  Here’s the upshot: “This is no market for young men,” Grantham said. “At least us old men remember what a real bear market is like, and the young men haven’t got … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Whales | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Watch the Hang Seng

Posted on September 21, 2011 by macromon

We’ve posted many times on this blog about how the Hang Seng Index is one of our indicators species for global risk appetite.  The index usually leads global markets on the downside and turns up before most. While all eyes … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Equities, Global Stock Performance | Tagged , , | 1 Comment