Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

Get Them to the Greek (Writedowns) – IASB

Posted on August 29, 2011 by macromon

Wow! Just came across this piece from the FT about the concerns of the International Accounting Standards Board  (IASB) of how European financial institutions have not reserved enough against potential credit losses on their Greece sovereign bond holdings.  Are these … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, PIIGS | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Chart of the Day: Youth Employment Ratio Lowest on Record

Posted on August 28, 2011 by macromon

The BLS reports, In July, the employment-population ratio for youth—the proportion of the 16- to 24-year-old civilian noninstitutional population that was employed—was 48.8 percent, a record low for the series. Long flash mobs and water cannons. (click here if chart … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Chart of the Day, Charts, Demographics, Employment | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Greece is the Word

Posted on August 26, 2011 by macromon

The Greeks are starting to play hardball on their private sector debt swap warning the deal could crater if the 90 percent participation is not met.  We think there are other reasons why it is trouble. According to various news … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, PIIGS, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | 3 Comments

Spiegel Unloads on Hedge Funds and the Markets

Posted on August 23, 2011 by macromon

Nasty article in Der Spiegel, Out of Control: The Destructive Power of the Financial Markets, which helps explain what’s behind the financial transactions tax that was recently introduced by Angela Merkel  and Nicolas Sarkozy.  The article opens, The enemy looks … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Economics, Euro, Fiscal Policy, General Interest, PIIGS, Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

S&P500 Faces a Fork in the Road

Posted on August 22, 2011 by macromon

“When you come to a fork in the road, take it.” – Yogi Berra Lot’s of chatter out there about the 2008 and 2010 analog for the S&P500 so we constructed a tracking chart for you.   Note the index is … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Equities | Tagged , , , | 4 Comments

Margin Call Coming This Fall

Posted on August 22, 2011 by macromon

Timing couldn’t be more perfect, no?  Maybe we get a bottom in equities on the release date.  Go here to the movie’s official website. (click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Equities, Policy, Video | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Seriously? Swissie a Safe Haven During a Banking Crisis?

Posted on August 18, 2011 by macromon

Here’s in an interesting chart, originally posted over at Zero Hedge, that makes us wonder do we really want to be long the Swiss franc during a European banking crisis?   Note the chart may be a little dated, but we … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Currency, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

This Market Sucks – Going Fishin’

Posted on August 17, 2011 by macromon

Fug this market.  Nothing is working.   You get long and lose money.  You get short and lose money.  You get flat and you lose purchasing power as the dollar melts and commodity staples rise.   These are the kind of markets … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Commodities, Crude Oil, Economics, Gold, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Dangerous Merkel-Sarkozy Spin

Posted on August 16, 2011 by macromon

Interesting read by some traders on the Merkel/Sarkozy nonevent.   Their take away is both leaders sent a message to the PIIGS to either get on board with fiscal adjustment or leave the Euro. Hmmmm.    Now what would that do to … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Monetary Policy, PIIGS | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Is It Déjà Vu All Over Again?

Posted on August 15, 2011 by macromon

Great ‘toon on the 1932 banking crisis, dated May 24, 1932,  posted over at the Worthwhile Canadian Initiative blog.  See our post, Credit-Anstalt 2.0?. The caption reads: “Phew! That’s A Nasty Leak.  Thank Goodness It’s Not At Our End of the Boat.”  … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Cartoon of the Day, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | Leave a comment